Interest Rate Cuts Land, Can the Crypto Market Usher in a New Bull Run?

Interest Rate Cuts Land, Can the Crypto Market Usher in a New Bull Run?Last week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 basis points, the first rate cut since March 2020. This action indicates that the Fed's reaction function has shifted from focusing solely on inflation to focusing on employment

Interest Rate Cuts Land, Can the Crypto Market Usher in a New Bull Run?

Last week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 basis points, the first rate cut since March 2020. This action indicates that the Fed's reaction function has shifted from focusing solely on inflation to focusing on employment. Looking ahead, the Fed will maintain a "dovish" stance until the job market stabilizes.

The good news of interest rate cuts spurred the crypto market, with Bitcoin breaking through $62,600, forcing the liquidation of Bitcoin short positions on multiple exchanges. Bitcoin is slowly digesting resistance levels, and after breaking through $62,500, the market outlook will be more optimistic, with levels above $65,000 potentially achievable.

This week, the crypto market has seen several hot topics: Telegram platform has unlocked "MiniApps" functionality through TomoTelegramSDK, bringing a convenient digital asset management experience to 900 million active users; Friend.Tech, once a star project in SocialFi, has failed due to its unsustainable model; Fractal's "head mining" Flux has attracted market attention; and HumaFinance has received $38 million in funding.

I. Macroeconomic Summary and Future Predictions

The Fed's rate cut action has sparked market confidence in the official start of a rate cut cycle, with major institutions initiating buying sprees, led by Fidelity, which saw the largest amount of selling in August, and began continuous buying last week. Ark also began buying after realizing profits in August. Fueled by market expectations of rate cuts exceeding expectations in September and even the latter half of the year, ETFs are confident in their support of BTC around $60,000.

However, this week's upcoming release of initial jobless claims from the U.S. Department of Labor still has the potential for unexpected results, and will be a key factor affecting whether ETFs can continue buying.

II. Changes and Warnings in the Crypto Industry Market

Bitcoin's breakthrough surge signals positive market sentiment, but whether it can sustain $62,500 support still hinges on the Fed's rate cut scale for the remaining four months of the year. If rate cuts exceed expectations, it is highly likely that the rebound will continue and test the $65,000 resistance; otherwise, it may continue to test the $60,000 support.

For ETH, recent rebounds have been weaker than BTC, and investors can view ETH's trend as a weakened version of BTC's. The crucial $2,500 support this week will be tested, and if it holds, it could rise to the $2,800 resistance; if it breaks, it will continue to focus on the $2,100 support zone.

III. Industry and Track Hotspots

1. TomoTelegramSDK Unlocks "MiniApps" Functionality for 900 Million TG Users

The embedded mini-apps on the Telegram platform have brought new opportunities to 900 million active users, providing convenient and integrated services. Whether users are shopping, playing games, or managing communities, they no longer need to leave the application.

Tomo platform supports multi-chain management and also offers rich features such as social login, optimized trader experience, and dApp integration, greatly enhancing user experience and potentially driving the adoption of Web3 services.

2. Former SocialFi Heavyweight Friend.Tech Finally Runs Away, Where is the Path for SocialFi?

The failure of Friend.Tech exposes the need for further exploration of sustainable economic models in the SocialFi space. It cannot rely solely on Ponzi schemes or DeFi models, but needs to develop products from the perspective of user needs for social interaction.

3. OTC Price Spikes 60 Times, Can Fractal's "Head Mining" Flux Ignite a Second Spring for Inscriptions?

The official launch of the Fractal mainnet has sparked a new wave of inscription craze, with its first token protocol, FLUX, being minted in half an hour. The OTC price once reached 50 USDT/inscription, an increase of over 60 times.

Although the FLUX protocol currently lacks indexing and markets, its simple functionality and minting website have already attracted market attention. Participants should be aware that the current minting website is quite rudimentary, and users face a significant level of risk in their operations.

4. HumaFinance Receives $38 Million in Funding, Birth of PayFi Leader?

HumaFinance is a revenue-based lending protocol that allows businesses and individuals to connect with global investors on-chain for loans based on future revenue. The protocol has performed well in the market environment and has the potential to drive the on-chaining of real-world assets.

IV. Hot Market Tracks and Potential Projects of the Week

1. Hot Track Performance

1.1. TomoTelegramSDK

TomoTelegramSDK offers users the following advantages:

• Cross-platform social login integration

• Multi-chain management support

• Enhanced trader experience

• dApp integration

• Security assurance

These features will simplify access to Web3 services and improve user engagement.

1.2. Friend.Tech

The failure of Friend.Tech serves as a warning that SocialFi development needs sustainable economic models, and cannot rely solely on Ponzi schemes or DeFi models.

1.3. Fractal's "Head Mining" Flux

While the Flux protocol is simple, its 60-fold OTC price spike has attracted market attention. Participants need to be aware of the risks associated with its minting website.

1.4. HumaFinance

HumaFinance addresses the persistent issues of low liquidity and low returns in native DeFi, and breakthroughs in the combination of RWA assets and crypto technology, potentially driving rapid growth in the RWA sector.

2. Potential Projects of the Week

2.1. Catprotocol

Catprotocol is a Bitcoin token protocol based on UTXO, featuring:

• No need for indexers

• Modular

• Programmable minting

• Cross-chain interoperability

• SPV compatible

Catprotocol has made significant innovations in Bitcoin native programmability, while achieving a quantum leap in security. Catprotocol will continue to attract market attention in the future.

V. Industry Data Analysis

1. Overall Market Performance

• Spot BTC + ETH ETF continued to be strong last week

• Spot BTC and ETH spot prices maintained a good rebound trend

• The Fear & Greed Index recovered strongly, but market sentiment remains volatile

• Crypto users should exercise caution with all investment decisions during this period.

2. Public Chain Data

• L1 public chain sector TVL rebounded overall last week, with Base, Sui, and the Bitcoin ecosystem performing brightly

• The L2 ecosystem did not show a clear TVL rebound trend, but liquidity fragmentation has affected user experience

• Among RWA protocols, Maker and Tether's TVL continued to grow

• Liquidity continued to be weak in the staking protocol sector last week, with EVM-based yield rates continuing to decline, causing funds to seek higher returns.

VI. Macroeconomic Data Review and Key Data Release Points Next Week

• The Fed launched a rate cut cycle with a 50 basis point reduction

• Key macroeconomic data points this week include: Initial jobless claims for the week ending Sept. 21, final reading of the U.S. second-quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate, etc.

VII. Regulatory Policy

• The US SEC appears to be backing down in the proposed SAB121 on crypto accounting policy

• The UK High Court ruled that Tether's USDT stablecoin can be considered property

Summary:

The good news of rate cuts spurred the crypto market, with Bitcoin breaking through $62,600, forcing the liquidation of Bitcoin short positions on multiple exchanges. New projects like TomoTelegramSDK, Fractal, and HumaFinance have also attracted market attention.

However, market sentiment remains volatile, and investors should exercise caution with all investment decisions.

Disclaimer:

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment is at your own risk.