Could Trump Be Back In The White House? Bernstein Analysts Say Bitcoin Could Surge To $80,000-$90,000Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein have reiterated their prediction that Bitcoin could reach an all-time high of $80,000 to $90,000 if Donald Trump wins the US election next month. The prediction comes from a recent divergence in Trump's odds on Polymarket, a platform considered the world's most liquid for election prediction
Could Trump Be Back In The White House? Bernstein Analysts Say Bitcoin Could Surge To $80,000-$90,000
Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein have reiterated their prediction that Bitcoin could reach an all-time high of $80,000 to $90,000 if Donald Trump wins the US election next month. The prediction comes from a recent divergence in Trump's odds on Polymarket, a platform considered the world's most liquid for election prediction.
In a note to clients on Wednesday, analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia argued that a Trump win would have a positive impact on the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market. They believe that Bitcoin could break its previous all-time high of $74,000 and reach $80,000 to $90,000 if Trump is re-elected.
However, if Kamala Harris wins, the analysts expect Bitcoin to fall to a new low of around $40,000 in the short term, as Harris' policy stance on cryptocurrencies differs significantly from Trump's. While the analysts believe that Bitcoins long-term performance will be good regardless of the outcome, they think that the market will react more significantly to the election results in the short term.
Polymarket: Trump's Odds Overestimated?
Polymarket is a blockchain-based platform that allows users to trade on prediction markets, betting on outcomes of various events, including the US presidential election. Due to Trump's public support for cryptocurrencies, some people believe there is an inherent bias towards the Republican candidate on Polymarket, which may be overestimating Trump's odds of winning.
However, Bernstein analysts believe that Polymarket's large liquidity is enough to offset any potential bias or manipulation. They argue that users are more likely to bet real money based on probabilities rather than reflecting their political preferences. In addition, they point out that investors who are already long on cryptocurrencies are more likely to be long on Harris as a hedge.
Trump's Odds Bounce Back
Harris led Trump in Polymarket in two phases. The first started when she was declared the Democratic nominee and lasted for several weeks until the market became too close to call. The second happened after the September 10 debate, where Harris had a strong performance, putting her ahead of Trump by 6% on Polymarket.
However, after Trump held a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, over the weekend where the former president narrowly escaped an assassination attempt in July Polymarket odds diverged sharply on Monday, with Trump at one point ahead of Harris by 8%. Elon Musk, a tech billionaire, also attended a rally supporting Trump in Butler, stating that Polymarket is more accurate than polls because real money is involved.
Polls: Harris Ahead, But Gap Is Narrowing
Despite Trump's bounce back in Polymarket odds, analysts point out that the latest national poll average still shows a too close to call race, with numbers showing Harris ahead by 3% within the margin of error.
They add: Nate Silver's Bayesian model takes recent polls as input to determine trends, and now has Harris ahead by 3%, but he still comments that this is a toss-up race.
Analysts believe that while there is a poll lead for Harris, the question is whether her lead should be larger to constitute a clear victory, given that polls historically underestimated Trump.
Swing States: Trump Ahead
Currently, Trump is ahead of Harris by 7% on Polymarket, with a 53.2% chance of winning the US presidency, while Harris' chances are at 46.2%.
Meanwhile, analysts note that the platform's swing state markets for Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina all have Trump ahead by more than 20% on Polymarket. Pennsylvania was closer before the Butler rally, and Trump is now leading by 9%, while Harris continues to lead in Wisconsin (by 4%) and Michigan (by 6%), although the gap is narrowing.
Impact on Other Cryptocurrencies
Analysts expect other cryptocurrencies to take a decisive direction only after the election, as the hierarchy of the SEC chair and White House regulatory aides will be clearer, as blockchain development is closely intertwined with the regulatory environment.
They predict that assets like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) will likely remain range-bound before the election regardless of who wins.
Conclusion
Bernstein analysts believe that a Trump victory could have a positive impact on Bitcoin prices, pushing the cryptocurrency to break its all-time high. However, if Harris wins, Bitcoin could see a short-term correction.
They also note that Polymarket's odds movements don't fully reflect the election outcome but can act as a reference point. Ultimately, who wins the election is still up to the American people to decide.
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