Can Bitcoin Break $80,000 in 2024? Three Factors Could Fuel a Bull RunPredicting Bitcoin's price is a popular topic, and I predicted late last year that Bitcoin would break $80,000 in 2024. While I believe this prediction remains feasible, achieving this target requires certain conditions to be met
Can Bitcoin Break $80,000 in 2024? Three Factors Could Fuel a Bull Run
Predicting Bitcoin's price is a popular topic, and I predicted late last year that Bitcoin would break $80,000 in 2024. While I believe this prediction remains feasible, achieving this target requires certain conditions to be met.
1. Election: A Democratic Sweep Would Be the Biggest Risk
The US elections are crucial for the cryptocurrency market. Most believe Trump's election would be beneficial for crypto, while Harris' election would be the opposite. The Republican Party is more supportive of crypto, so a Republican victory would be a good sign for cryptocurrency.
The Democratic Party's stance on crypto is more complex. From Senator Elizabeth Warren's anti-crypto stance to Congressman Ritchie Torres' strong support, there are different voices within the Democratic Party. Over the past few years, the Warren faction has dominated policymaking and institutional appointments, creating a hostile environment for the crypto industry.
However, Bitcoin's development doesn't require intervention from politicians, only that they "stay out of the way." Unless the Democrats achieve a landslide victory in both houses of Congress and the White House, I don't think they will take a hard line on the crypto industry.
From the recent statements of Maxine Waters, a top Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, we can see that Democrats are gradually accepting the reality of crypto. She said, "Cryptocurrency is inevitable." I think this attitude is enough for us to see Bitcoin break $80,000.
According to Polymarket predictions, the probability of a Democratic sweep is only 20%.
2. Economy: Rate Cuts and Global Stimulus Measures are Key
The main reason people choose Bitcoin is simple: they distrust governments and their monetary policies. This idea gave birth to Bitcoin in 2008 and remains a powerful driving force for crypto's development. This concept is widely recognized, even used by BlackRock in its marketing campaign for Bitcoin.
Despite the US economy's growth, the Fed still cut interest rates by 50 basis points, while the crypto market rose, a testament to people's distrust of the government. Furthermore, China's launch of a 2 trillion yuan economic stimulus package at the end of September also led to a significant rise in the crypto market.
The market craves more stimulus measures. The market currently expects the Fed to further cut interest rates by 50 basis points by year-end, and China to introduce more fiscal stimulus measures. If both situations materialize, I expect to see a market rebound in Q4. Conversely, if they fail to materialize as expected, market disappointment could arise, putting pressure on the market.
3. Cryptocurrency: Avoiding Major Negative Surprises
To achieve the new high of $80,000, we need to ensure that no major surprises occur in the coming months. This includes:
- No major hacks
- No large-scale lawsuits
- No previously locked tokens suddenly entering the market
Unfortunately, cryptocurrency history is full of unexpected events. Over the past few quarters, previously locked Bitcoin has been released from bankrupt exchange Mt.Gox and government vaults, resulting in the market remaining range-bound. If we can smoothly navigate to the end of the year without similar shocks, I expect to see record highs and even beyond.
Altcoins: Key to Pushing Overall Crypto Up
Some Bitcoin users may dislike my statement. But I think an overall crypto rebound will help to achieve the prediction of Bitcoin breaking $80,000.
While Bitcoin's long-term success doesn't rely on Ethereum, Solana, or other altcoins, and is often harmed by shenanigans in the altcoin space, if we want to see a broad-based melt-up in the short term, say over the next few months, it will help to have some crypto-positive sentiment sweeping through the market.
Think back to the last time Bitcoin had a sustained leg up, from June 2019 to June 2020. During that period, Bitcoin traded in a narrow range between $8,000 and $10,000. Then, in late summer 2020, Bitcoin started to climb and went straight up to $60,000. A lot of that was driven by COVID-era stimulus, but some of it was (for lack of a better term) sentiment.
The "DeFi summer" of 2020 made investors excited about crypto again, and some of that animal spirits spilled over into Bitcoin. This year, that animal spirit has been scarce outside of Bitcoin. But I can literally see it emerging in areas like stablecoins, which are seeing record AUMs; or innovative projects like Babylon, which is figuring out how to help Bitcoin holders earn yield from staking. Strong and sustained momentum in these areas will feed into the melt-up.
Conclusion
It's worth remembering that Bitcoin has already had a pretty good year. It's one of the best-performing assets globally, up 49%, and its news flow has been incredibly strong. We've seen the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, which have become the best-performing ETFs ever. We've seen substantial institutional adoption, with 60% of major hedge funds now holding Bitcoin. We've also seen Bitcoin enter the mainstream political dialogue in a way that was unthinkable a few years ago.
All this suggests that Bitcoin has the potential to break $80,000 (or more) next year, regardless of how the news develops. But if we want to see this happen by year-end, the above script might help.
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