Sister Mu said that Bitcoin will rise to 1100 million by 2030, is it fake?

Risk Reminder: The information shared below is only public information on the internet and my perspective at this moment, and does not constitute investment advice for anyone. My viewpoint will change over time and with the emergence of new information

Risk Reminder: The information shared below is only public information on the internet and my perspective at this moment, and does not constitute investment advice for anyone. My viewpoint will change over time and with the emergence of new information. Please do your own research and investment well, and comply with relevant national laws and regulations. Do not participate in various high-risk speculative speculation! Invest accordingly and bear the risk yourself.

A few days ago, while watching the news of Hamas vs. Israel on the internet, I was really excited when I saw a video and Mu Jie jumped out and said that Bitcoin would rise to $1.5 million per coin by 2030. At today's exchange rate, it's about 7.35, so isn't it 1100 yuan?

My first reaction when I saw her say this was that I laughed and thought to myself, 'Isn't this guy a fool?'? After all, it's only over 20000 dollars now, so she'll just give you a raise to over 10 million? According to our domestic consumption level, even in first and second tier cities, as long as we have two coins in hand, wouldn't we have no worries about food and clothing?

The second reaction is that these fund managers from the United States, like Li Daxiao and Ren Zeping from China, are purely internet celebrities who only speak up every day to attract the attention of retail investors.

The third reaction is, no, this old woman's speech is unreliable. After all, she predicted in 2020 that her own internet celebrity Ark Fund would increase by 2.5 times by 2025. It's almost 2024 now, not only has it not risen, but it has fallen from 140 to 38, which has already been cut off.

Although I didn't believe it in my heart, I went specifically to the official website of Ark Fund to read its 153 page research report. The name is quite atmospheric, called BIGIDEAS2023. I have carefully read the entire report, which is actually ARK's annual research and summary of the latest situation of various pillar industry clusters in the technological revolution. It includes many aspects, such as artificial intelligence, genetic medicine, new energy, space technology, and so on.

The proportion of Bitcoin related parts in it is actually not significant. It is mainly based on the following data and logic to argue and ultimately derive the price increase in 2030.

Bitcoin fell to $15797 last year, down 76.7% from the peak of the previous bull market. After the bull market in 2017, it fell by 84.3% from its peak. So ARK believes that this round of bear market has already compared the historical situation in terms of the magnitude and timing of the pullback.

How to say this one. The retreat rate is indeed quite sufficient compared to the past. But there is a significant difference between this round and the previous one, which is the ongoing violent interest rate hikes in the US dollar. What is the concept that the yield of treasury bond is more than five o'clock? After changing ETH to POS, the current collateral yield is only a little over three points.

Bitcoin now has a total market value of over 4 trillion yuan, making it a major asset class. I don't believe it is not affected by the US dollar's bloodletting. Unless at some point the US dollar significantly lowers interest rates, all of its claims may be valid. I think a good observation point is the ETH pledge yield. When the short-term interest rate of the US dollar falls below 100 BP, there will be a clear motivation for off exchange funds to flow back into the crypto market.

Then she also analyzed some fundamental data. I took a look at some of the more common ones. For example, non zero wallet addresses have also increased in recent years, from 32.6 million to 43.5 million. Network computing power is also continuously increasing. And this has indeed grown quite rapidly, with a growth rate of several tens of times since 2017.

From this perspective, the security of the Bitcoin network has been greatly enhanced, but on the other hand, mining has now become a difficult field for ordinary people to enter. If there is no obvious advantage in electricity prices, it's better not to mess around, it's easy to lose money.

3. The third thing to put it bluntly is that individual investors have already suffered a tragic loss. How miserable is it? It provides several data here. The first one is that 68.3% of Bitcoin supply in 2022 was traded at a loss price, which is more than any previous bear market. Of course, I believe it won't be much better this year.

In addition, its data shows that Bitcoin holders incurred a huge loss of $200 billion throughout 2022, which has never occurred in history.

I think there is basically no problem with the data for this one. But it's normal to lose a lot, after all, they also made a lot in 2021. The data shows that a loss of $200 billion only resulted in 75% of the previously realized profits being forfeited. In other words, didn't you still make billions of dollars.

4. Then it listed some cases adopted by institutions, attempting to illustrate that mainstream financial institutions are not only not leaving, but also using the favorable conditions during the bear market to seize the layout in the crypto market. It lists examples of giants such as Blackstone, New York Mellon, and Fidelity.

Objectively speaking, this is actually a fact. And in fact, there's more than that. This year, I've also seen more news reports in this area. Because many friends know that RWA (real world assets) is the most important narrative in the defi field this year, and may also be the focus of many large institutions' next development. In this process, simply encrypting native institutions is still weak, which provides a very smooth scenario for traditional financial giants to enter the encryption market.

Finally, I carefully reviewed its conclusion section. Its price forecast is based on some assumptions. And based on the different scenarios implemented by these assumptions, it actually provides three possible prices under different expectations. The most pessimistic scenario is to reach $258500 by 2030. The most optimistic scenario is to reach $1.48 million.

I would like to highlight the areas that I believe are unreasonable.

Firstly, it assumes that Bitcoin will to some extent replace the role of gold, and even in the most pessimistic scenario, it believes that it needs to reach a market value of 20% of gold (currently reaching 2.2% of gold's market value). I didn't see how it came up with this data in the report, and I feel a bit lacking in evidence.

Secondly, it believes that as a type of anti confiscation asset, Bitcoin's market share can only reach a maximum of 6.5% by 2030, or even only 1% in the most pessimistic scenario. This is obviously not very reasonable, it must be on the low side. I understand everything, so I won't say more.

In addition, the report suggests that Bitcoin, as a settlement tool, may account for 1-10% of the settlement volume in the United States. I think this is too high. Especially 10%, that's completely bullshit. For those who truly hold it, they definitely don't want to use it as a settlement tool. Because it's very simple, a currency that fluctuates greatly in price is naturally not used for settlement. And it is clearly only suitable for value storage.

There are some unreasonable aspects in its other assumptions, so we won't go into further detail. In short, I feel that its conclusion is a bit of a slap in the head.

Finally, let's summarize:

The data and logic in the ARK report are basically not too problematic. But its valuation model does seem a bit lacking in basis. Of course, it is also possible that there are some specific data or details in the manuscript of its report that we cannot see, so we do not know how they were derived.

My personal opinion is that it should be possible to achieve its most pessimistic price expectation. After all, the previous round of highs were almost 70000 yuan. And there are still 400 days to halve, and there is likely to be a bull market before 2030. By then, it only needs to double three and a few times to reach the 258000 it said. I don't know what your friends think of this report. Welcome to share it with everyone in the comments section.

Since you've all seen this, please give me a thumbs up!If you want this ARK report, you can send it to me privately. There is no way to send it to you immediately. The main issue is that the file is too large to be sent here. You can also register, subscribe, and download on its official website yourself.