After falling below the $30000 mark on June 10th last year, Bitcoin regained its lost territory after a 10 month hiatus. The market shows that Bitcoin rose as high as $30500 this morning, temporarily at $30022, with a 24-hour increase of 6

After falling below the $30000 mark on June 10th last year, Bitcoin regained its lost territory after a 10 month hiatus. The market shows that Bitcoin rose as high as $30500 this morning, temporarily at $30022, with a 24-hour increase of 6.3% and an 82% increase for the year.

On the news side, Baidu and Tiktok App and other online bitcoin market data queries last night were also interpreted as a major driver of this rally, which was called "CNPower" (China Power) by the market. Interestingly, this week coincides with Web3 Hong Kong Blockchain Week, and the curse of "every meeting must fall" seems to have been broken.

Overnight, the market suddenly changed, and Bitcoin returned to $30000. Has it opened the door to a new bull market?

1 Vampire market, Bitcoin stands out alone

After breaking through to $28000 in mid March, Bitcoin has been fluctuating and consolidating near this point for three weeks.

Last night, Bitcoin broke through $29000 and successfully broke through and stabilized at $30000 this morning, setting a new high since June 10th last year. At present, Bitcoin is temporarily priced at $30200, with a 24-hour increase of 6.3%; Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has recorded a cumulative increase of 80%.

however,In last night's market round, other mainstream currencies did not follow the pace of Bitcoin, with gains far behind BTC, leading to a bloodsucking market.The top 20 currencies in market value, with a basic increase of 2% to 4%; Among the top 50 currencies with market capitalization, only STX (10.5%), FIL (6.7%), LDO (6.5%), and RPL (6.3%) can match the growth of BTC; Especially ETH, it has repeatedly failed to break through the resistance level of $2000.

In fact, since the thunderstorm of traditional banks such as SVB in March, the ALT/BTC exchange rate has been continuously declining, and Bitcoin's trend has been stronger than other mainstream currencies. From the perspective of market share, the proportion of BTC has increased from 41% in March to 48%, while ETH has been hovering around 18%. One possible explanation is that Bitcoin has become a safe haven for funds.

Affected by the overall upward trend of the market, the total market value of encryption has risen to 1235.4 billion US dollars, up 4.5% in 24 hours; Since the beginning of the year, the total market value of encryption has increased by $406.9 billion, a cumulative increase of 49.1%. The trading enthusiasm of encrypted users has significantly increased, with a panic and greed index of 68 today (yesterday's 62). The level of greed has increased compared to yesterday, and the level is still greed.

In terms of derivative trading, Coinglas data shows that,In the past 24 hours, the entire network has sold out 162 million US dollars, of which ETH sold out 11.17 million US dollars and BTC sold out 53.33 million US dollars. A total of 28404 people have become victims of the sale.According to Glassnode data, the open position of Bitcoin options ($10.3 billion) exceeded the open position of futures ($10 billion) for the first time on April 9, mainly due to the purchase of a large number of call option, which also means that traders bet that the price of BTC will be higher.

In addition, mainstream institutions' interest in grayscale products has begun to decline, with ARK Fund reducing its holdings of over 100000 shares of GBTC in March; According to TheBlockPro data, GBTC's daily trading volume increased by 67.6% in March to $55 million, setting a new high since December 2022. Currently, GBTC's net asset value discount rate has decreased from 49% in the beginning of the year to 36.83%; The net discount rate of the Gray Ethereum Trust Fund (ETHE) has decreased from 59.3% at the beginning of the year to 52.63%.

The current total holdings of grayscale funds are 25.219 billion US dollars, and the discount rates of other mainstream currency trusts are as follows: ETC (-62%), LTC (-43.55%), BCH (-25.86%), ZEC (-27.15%), MANA (-7.25%), ZEN (-25.26%), LPT (-27.27%), and BAT (-40.93%). The three products with positive premiums are XLM (10.73%), LINK (22.78%), and FIL (103.79%).

Cryptography related listed companies have also been affected by the rising market, with stock prices generally rising by over 10% in the past week.Among them, the stock price of mining machinery's first stock, Jianan Technology (NASDAQ: CAN), rose 4.1% today to temporarily close at $2.59, with a cumulative increase of 25.7% during the year; The stock price of Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN), a compliant encryption platform in the United States, rose 7.6% today to temporarily close at $66.13, with a cumulative increase of 86.8% during the year; MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), the largest Bitcoin holding listed company, rose 7.8% to $312.7 today, with a cumulative increase of 120% over the year.

Policy openness is beneficial for the market. In addition, this week coincides with 2023 Web3 Hong Kong Blockchain Week, and many Chinese people gather in Xiangjiang, breaking the curse of "every meeting must fall". The crypto community is crowned with the title of "China Power" to demonstrate the important position of the East in the crypto market.

From the perspective of macroeconomic conditions, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike may slow down in the second half of the year, and the market is relatively optimistic about the future trend.

After a 25 basis point interest rate hike in March this year, the US federal funds rate has reached its highest level since October 2007. According to an interview with Republican Representative Kevin Hearn, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated during a private meeting with U.S. lawmakers that he expects another rate hike this year when asked how much more the Fed will raise.

Powell previously stated that the Federal Reserve is concerned about job vacancies, CPI, PPI, and employment data, while the US March non farm data released on the evening of April 7th showed signs of a cooling in the labor market.

Bank of America believes that the non farm report gives the Federal Reserve a chance to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May; Bank of America still expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged after its May meeting, which means the final interest rate will be between 5.0% -5.25%.

The continuous slowdown in economic data after January means that the economy will experience weakness in the second quarter and pose a significant risk of negative growth in the current quarter. By the June interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve will receive a large amount of data on the second quarter, which should prove that suspending interest rate hikes is reasonable.

3 Future: Market bottoms out, halves market starts

Has the $30000 mark on Bitcoin opened the door to a new bull market? There are several positive factors regarding the future trend of Bitcoin.

One is to halve the market price.Whenever the Bitcoin blockchain generates 210000 blocks, the miners' block rewards will be halved; This halving occurs approximately every four years, which will slow down the issuance speed of Bitcoin. The next round of Bitcoin halving will occur on May 9, 2024.

The multiple halving in history is closely related to the bull market cycle of the entire crypto market. According to past data statistics, Bitcoin will reach its peak around 368-550 days after halving, and then reach its bottom within 779-914 days after halving; In other words, since halving in May 2020, the lowest point of Bitcoin prices should have occurred between June and December 2022- the location of the previous cycle occurred in November 2022 ($15476). The crypto market has passed its darkest hour and the likelihood of returning to this price is very low.

Philip Swift, co-founder of the trading suite Decentrader, stated that according to calculations, Bitcoin will experience a "double peak" in 2025, reaching two peaks of over $200000, similar to the trends in 2013, 2017, and 2021; The specific point may be slightly lower than the data calculation expectation, approximately $180000; In the following year, the low point of the bear market will be around $50000.

Secondly, from the perspective of on chain data, the vast majority of Bitcoin is in a dormant state with relatively low pressure.According to Glassnode data, 53% of Bitcoin's current supply has been inactive in the past two years; Nearly 29% of Bitcoin's current supply has not been transferred in the past five years, with approximately 5.6 million units (worth approximately $158 billion); 15% of Bitcoin has not been moved in a decade, approximately 2.7 million (worth $76 billion).

In addition, from the perspective of technical indicators, multiple data shows long-term bullishness.At the beginning of March this year, the 100 day moving average and the 200 day moving average formed a bullish "golden cross"; Last week, the 60 week and 200 week moving averages formed a bullish "golden cross", currently suppressed by the 100 week moving average, with resistance around $33500.

It should be noted that although Bitcoin has been bullish for a long time,But another pressure that may face in the short term is the US government selling off.According to court documents, the US government confiscated 50000 BTCs related to the Dark Web Silk Road and sold 9800 BTCs on March 14 this year. The remaining 41500 BTCs (worth approximately $1.25 billion) are planned to be sold in four batches this year. For the market, this will be a significant selling pressure.