On September 2nd, the price of Ethereum (ETH) fell to $1620. Both on chain and derivative trading data indicate that Ethereum may experience more bearish resistance in the coming days
On September 2nd, the price of Ethereum (ETH) fell to $1620. Both on chain and derivative trading data indicate that Ethereum may experience more bearish resistance in the coming days.
Ethereum futures market lost nearly $450 million
Derivatives market data shows that on September 4th, Bitcoin holdings fell to $4.86 billion. It is worth noting that the last time it fell to this level was during the market panic caused by the USDC decoupling and the collapse of Silicon Valley banks in March 2023.
The recent downward trend means that the Ethereum futures market evaporated nearly $450 million in the first four days of September.
Open position contracts summarize the total value of active or unsettled derivative contracts for assets. The downward trend of open positions in contracts is an important bearish signal, indicating that investors are transferring funds from the ETH futures market.
The decrease in market interest and participation may also lead to a decrease in demand in the ETH spot market.
Long term investors have entered a panic mode
The bearish resistance from derivative traders has also spread to the ETH spot market. On chain data shows that many long-term ETH investors have been selling in the past week.
What proves this is that the average coin age of ETH was 47.82 on August 28th, and as of September 4th, it has dropped to 45.54. A 5% decrease in average coin age indicates a large-scale selling frenzy among ETH holders.
Ethereum (ETH) prices face a bearish headwind
MeanCoinAge is an on chain indicator that measures the overall trading sentiment of long-term investors. It is obtained by estimating the average number of days that the current address has not been moved from the total tokens in circulation.
The downward trend of the average token era usually means that many long-term held tokens are transferred or sold during this period. The above figure shows a close correlation between the average currency age fluctuations and recent ETH price adjustments, especially around August 18th and 29th.
If this trend repeats, ETH holders can expect further price declines in the coming days.
ETH price forecast: $1600 support level at risk
Based on the on chain and derivative market data analyzed above, the price of Ethereum may lose support of $1600 in the coming days.
The inflow/outflow data of funds around prices shows the distribution of entry prices for current ETH holders, which also validates this prediction.
However, as shown in the figure below, 2.5 million addresses purchased 3.12 million tokens at the lowest price of $1581. If these holders purchase more tokens to cover their positions, they can provide strong initial support.
But if this support level is not maintained, the price of Ethereum may fall back to $1500.
Ethereum (ETH) Price Forecast
Nevertheless, if bulls can trigger a rebound above $1800, it may reverse the bearish trend. However, as shown in the above figure, 1.65 million current holders purchased 5.4 million ETHs at an average price of $1700.
If the resistance selling market collapses, Ethereum bulls may try to regain the $1800 area.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is sourced from the internet. The copyright of the text, images, and other materials belongs to the original author. The platform reprints the materials for the purpose of conveying more information. The content of the article is for reference and learning only, and should not be used for commercial purposes. If it infringes on your legitimate rights and interests, please contact us promptly and we will handle it as soon as possible! We respect copyright and are committed to protecting it. Thank you for sharing.(Email:[email protected])
