Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis: Bottoming Out, Ready for a New Bull Run?In early January, this blog predicted that Bitcoin and Ethereum would not reach new highs in January, but instead experience a bottoming-out correction, completing a daily chart-level retracement. Early in the month, we advised monitoring the 60-day moving average for a bounce
Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis: Bottoming Out, Ready for a New Bull Run?
In early January, this blog predicted that Bitcoin and Ethereum would not reach new highs in January, but instead experience a bottoming-out correction, completing a daily chart-level retracement. Early in the month, we advised monitoring the 60-day moving average for a bounce. When the bounce reached around $98,000, we predicted a subsequent daily chart C-wave to a new low. Market movements ultimately validated this forecast, once again demonstrating a core market principle: excessive consensus often precedes divergence.
Let's review the 3-day chart's performance. The 3-day chart's 2025 trajectory shows the first correction after this year's high, with a second correction to follow. We can look for similarities with the 3-day chart correction in early January 2024. The striking resemblance between the 2024 and 2025 3-day chart patterns reflects the cyclical nature of the market. As W.D. Gann stated, "Price is right, but time is not right, the market will not move. Cycle is the mysterious force that triggers events." The best way to predict the future is often by reviewing the past. Bitcoin's cyclical patterns are embedded in its historical candlestick charts; I currently only have a rudimentary understanding and have not yet fully grasped the essence.
So, after Bitcoin broke below the previous low of $91,200 today, what aspects should we pay attention to?
Bitcoin Market Considerations:
1. C-Wave New Low and Bottom Confirmation: Bitcoin touched $90,300 today, meeting the condition for a C-wave new low. Whether it will break below $90,000 requires observation over the next few days. If it doesn't break below, the bottom of this daily chart-level correction may be around $90,000. The daily chart-level correction that began on December 17th is nearing its end; the theoretical low is in the $87,000-$89,000 range. Therefore, buying at around $90,000 to cover a portion of your position is a feasible strategy. Even a drop to $87,000 is only a $3,000 difference, making the risk relatively manageable.
2. Bottom Completion and Upward Trend Initiation: We expect Bitcoin to complete its bottoming-out process this week, initiating a new upward trend as early as this weekend, or at the latest, a new weekly chart-level upward trend by the end of the month. The first target of the subsequent upward trend is to break the historical high of $108,000, and the second is to reach around $120,000.
3. Firmly Hold Positions, Seize the Upward Cycle: After completing your purchases, February and March are projected to be months of significant upward movement. During this phase, you should hold your positions firmly until the end of this weekly chart-level upward trend before considering selling.
4. Gradual Purchase Strategy: We suggest buying a base position at around $90,000-$91,000, reserving some funds to wait for a price drop to below $89,600, and finally, retaining a small amount for a full position after the 4-hour MACD golden cross. It is crucial to complete your purchases this week to prepare for the upcoming upward trend.
Ethereum Market Analysis and Considerations:
Given that some users are interested in Ethereum, and the altcoin market is quite complex, we will only analyze Ethereum here and not comment on the altcoin market. Ethereum's movement is more standard, exhibiting a classic daily chart A-B-C structure. This blog previously pointed out that Ethereum would hit a new low, requiring a break below the previous low of $3100. Today it reached around $3030, with this C-wave decline nearing its end.
Ethereum Considerations:
1. Bottom-Picking Strategy and Risk Management: If Bitcoin plunges below $89,000 or even $87,000, Ethereum may plunge to around $2900. Bottom-picking around $3000 requires reserving positions and paying attention to leverage to avoid excessive risk.
2. Long-Term Upward Potential: $4000 is not the top for this year; there is still potential for new highs.
3. Upward Targets and Holding Strategy: Ethereum is also expected to rise significantly in February and March, with a first target of $3700 and a second target of $4100, surpassing the historical high.
Investment Recommendations and Risk Warning:
In summary, we recommend prioritizing Bitcoin due to its higher market consensus and relative safety. This blog plans to establish a base position below $91,000, add to the position around $89,000, and finally, go full position when the 4-hour MACD crosses above.
Important Notice: It is best to invest in spot markets and avoid leverage. It is best to invest in spot markets and avoid leverage. It is best to invest in spot markets and avoid leverage. All investments carry risk. Please make careful decisions and invest according to your own risk tolerance. The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.
This articles judgment on market trends is based on historical data and technical analysis, but market fluctuations are unpredictable, and any forecast has uncertainties. Investors should think independently, make prudent decisions, and avoid blindly following the crowd. Risk is your own.
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