Why do I believe that in the next bull market, Bitcoin will reach $100000 to $200000 and ETH will reach $16000 to $34000.1/In the encryption industry, history often repeats itself
Why do I believe that in the next bull market, Bitcoin will reach $100000 to $200000 and ETH will reach $16000 to $34000.
1/
In the encryption industry, history often repeats itself.
It is widely known that the bull market was ignited by the halving of Bitcoin.
The following chart shows the history of a bull market with a cycle of halving.
2/
Half reduction can be understood as a decrease in mining volume, resulting in a decrease in dumping pressure.
Miners are often accused of manipulating the price of Bitcoin and selling their mining rewards at the same price as the previous bull market, thereby pushing up the price of Bitcoin.
3/
The next halving will occur in April 2024.
If history repeats itself, due to halving, a bull market will begin in 2024.
But how to predict its impact?
4/
To determine the prices that may be touched in the future, I will first determine the potential total market value, and then combine it with the market share of each token.
To this end, I will analyze the multiplier ratio of the previous market from bottom to top.
5/
We can clearly see that the multiplier between the bottom and top is decreasing.
So what could happen?
6/
If we assume the market bottoms out in November, based on data and history, it seems difficult to see the next top multiplier exceeding 29.
Due to the fact that bull markets always hit new highs, we can assume that the range reached by the previous bottom is between 4 and 29 times.
7/
The following are the potential market gains and forecast data.
I will use 6 different market value scenarios, ranging from 4x to 29x, which are:
-4x
-9x
-13x
-16x
-19x
-23x
-29x
8/
Where will the market go?
Adopting multiple ranges allows us to make different assumptions based on different predictions.
The lower range is too pessimistic, while the higher range is too optimistic.
We must find a realistic range, which for me is between 9 and 19 times.
9/
Now that we have the potential total market value, we can predict its price by using the proportion of assets in the total market value.
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) accounted for 49.9% and 19.04% of the global market value respectively.
10/
These data are based on current market share speculation, which is constantly changing and declining.
Currently, due to the upcoming launch of ETFs, BTC is starting to soar, and the future may be dominated by ETH (which is constantly growing) and other counterfeit currencies.
11/
I believe that due to the technology and adoption potential of counterfeit coins, Bitcoin's dominant position will continue to decline in the coming years.
If ETHETF is launched, I believe ETH and BTC will have the same level of dominance.
12/
Although uncertain events such as the Black Swan Event (COVID-19, war, ban, etc.) may occur, Cryptocurrency will still be adopted on a large scale.
No matter what happens, a good mindset can prepare you for the next cycle.
13/
The numbers shown in this article may appear too high, but on the data graph, this is still highly possible.
Among many potential use cases, Bitcoin ETFs are the first that traditional financial institutions may adopt, and they will continue to inject funds into these new asset classes.
Add another exciting update (EIP-1559, destroyed)
14/
When is the best buying period?
Yesterday, today, and tomorrow.
When looking at these predictions, we understand that in the longer term, market fluctuations of 5% to 10% are irrelevant.
15/
If you have a long-term vision for the industry, a 10% drop in ETH and BTC will hardly affect you.
16/
This also means that the market value of counterfeit coins will be much higher.
When making long-term investments, the current market value of major projects is extremely low compared to the potential of the next bull market.
Today's $1 billion FDV is not equal to tomorrow's $1 billion.
17/
My view is still that the price of Bitcoin may reach between US $100000 and US $200000, and the price of Ethereum may reach between US $16000 and US $34000, if it rises 9 to 19 times from the lowest point of US $15000.
This range may be more or less.
18/
Accurately predicting prices is still impossible, but I plan to use them as a stop profit target during a bull market while still managing market sentiment.
19/
Ultimately, halving is just a market cycle, similar to what we have experienced in the real estate or stock markets.
It has always existed and will continue to exist. Cryptocurrency is just a super fast market, forming the top and bottom at a higher speed.
20/
Although the above analysis is based on data and contains arbitrary elements, I firmly believe that the encryption market is irrational.
Given the "youthfulness" of the market, it is difficult for us to predict accurate numbers.
21/
That's why these numbers should be used as a potential result, rather than a definitive result.
Many unexpected events can completely change predictions, for better or worse.
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