Technolibertarianism and Trumpism: Deciphering the Right-Wing Tide Behind Bitcoin's Meteoric Rise

Technolibertarianism and Trumpism: Deciphering the Right-Wing Tide Behind Bitcoin's Meteoric RiseThe current world presents a peculiar confluence: a deep intertwining of techno-libertarianism and Trumpism. This marks a powerful alliance between the technological right and the political right, forming arguably the largest right-wing wave in human history

Technolibertarianism and Trumpism: Deciphering the Right-Wing Tide Behind Bitcoin's Meteoric Rise

The current world presents a peculiar confluence: a deep intertwining of techno-libertarianism and Trumpism. This marks a powerful alliance between the technological right and the political right, forming arguably the largest right-wing wave in human history. Technology itself is neutral, but its application is not. Decentralized blockchain technology and distributed ledgers embody right-leaning technological ideals, representing a deconstruction and defiance of centralized authority. Trumpism, as an extremely radical form of political right-wing populism, similarly deconstructs and defies the authority of traditional establishment politics. Bitcoin's surge past the $100,000 mark constitutes a significant reassessment of the global rightward shift in both politics and technology. Increasingly, right-leaning nations are easing their concerns about digital currencies replacing fiat money and relaxing their regulatory grip. In the complex world of the digital economy, digital currencies are gradually becoming "uncontrollable," their prices experiencing wild swingswith inevitable, dramatic volatility to follow.

From an intuitive perspective, Bitcoin is a technological emergence. It realizes Hayek's envisioned, non-state utopian monetary scenario by challenging existing production relations through a digital disruption of the monetary systemenabled by blockchain technology. Bitcoin feels like a precious pearl accidentally discovered by "bad boys"Satoshi Nakamoto and his colleaguesin the vast ocean of digital information technology; "bad boys" dissatisfied with the status quo, defiant of authority, and courageous enough to break with convention. Initially, however, few recognized its value. Two decades ago, when Bitcoin first emerged at a price of just a few cents, no one could have imagined its $100,000+ price today. Four years ago, when Cathie Wood predicted Bitcoin would surpass $100,000, most dismissed it as a pipe dream. Even after Bitcoin's price increased nearly tenfold post-pandemic, Warren Buffett still dismissively labeled it a bubble and a scam. And yet, amidst the world's ridicule and disdain, Bitcoin has steadily built a mythical asset valuation.

Due to the lagging theoretical research on the digital economy and digital finance compared to their rapid practical development, our understanding of digital currencies remains rudimentary, bordering on ignorance. Consequently, within the cryptocurrency community, the attitude towards digital cryptocurrencies is often "believe first, see later"with a tinge of superstition or religious fervor. However, it's crucial to acknowledge the deficiency in theoretical research; we have yet to logically provide theoretical legitimacy and orthodoxy for the emergence and existence of digital cryptocurrencies.

Five years ago, in my article "Zhao Jian: Bitcoin in the Eye of the Storm," I suggested that Bitcoin should be viewed as an alternative asset rather than a currency. As long as Bitcoin fails to fulfill the functions of a medium of exchange and a unit of account, it's difficult to classify it as a currency. While many over-the-counter transactions now utilize digital currencies, due to excessive price volatility, transactions are still denominated in US dollars. Stablecoins also struggle to see widespread real-world adoption. Therefore, current digital currencies are not yet functioning as currencies. However, with improved usage scenarios and technological upgrades, widespread use as currency seems a likely trend. I have indirectly encountered a case of an overseas real estate transaction using Bitcoin directly, leveraging smart contracts to avoid operational risks and save significant intermediary fees; this indeed demonstrates its potential as an ideal currency for large transactions.

• So, what explains the mythical valuation and wealth creation of this digital alternative asset, these seemingly valueless numbers in the real world? To answer this, we must understand the modern paradigm of financial asset valuation. It no longer relies on classical pricing models like DCF or CAPM, but on a core element: narrative and consensus. The young, brilliant historian and author of Sapiens, Yuval Noah Harari, details in the book's opening chapters a unique human social function: storytelling. Stories, passed down through generations, weave a belief network; belief networks form consensus; and consensus can create a generally accepted medium of exchange. The essence of currency and financial asset valuation is largely a consensus formed through narrative.

The postmodern characteristics of the collective digital mindset are increasingly prominent. The post-2008 financial crisis quantitative easing created massive global financial capital, and financial speculative capital no longer adheres to classical pricing models (see my article "Zhao Jian: The Money Printers Have Destroyed the Value Investing System"). If Bitcoin has no value, then which currency possesses true value? Let's disregard fiat currencies, inherently lacking intrinsic valuethey are merely strings of numbers or pieces of paper. Consider gold: how much value does it truly possess? Compared to its global reserves and trading volume, how much is used in industry or jewelry? Gold is not currently a generally accepted medium of exchange, nor a unit of account; it lacks monetary functions. However, gold: firstly, enjoys strong consensus; for millennia it has been a natural store of value and safe haven asset, even serving as an anchor for fiat currencies; secondly, it possesses scarcity, with limited supply, a degree of transparency, and open availability; it cannot be arbitrarily increased; thirdly, it has a well-established trading network and infrastructure for circulation and pricing, becoming part of classic asset portfolios. Which of these three elements does Bitcoin lack?

Firstly, narrative and consensus. Bitcoin is inherently digital, a native currency of the digital world, and today's narrative relies on digital dissemination, perfectly aligning with the postmodern ethos of the post-digital technology revolutionfree, defiant of authority, and unrestrained. Secondly, supply scarcity. This is Bitcoin's most valuable aspect: a transparent, publicly verifiable algorithmic consensus dictates its limited supplya story frequently invoked to trigger buying frenzies. Thirdly, trading and pricing infrastructure. Blockchain and Web3 technologies are maturing. Altogether, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can be considered digital gold mined from the digital world.

Today, global political sentiment leans toward right-wing libertarianism, and it's becoming increasingly radical. Simultaneously, the rise of the artificial intelligence revolution and the growing discontent among Silicon Valley's tech geniuses with the systems and societies created by the establishmentincluding the monetary systemis apparent. The US dollar, as the world's reserve currency, has lost its fiscal discipline and is completely manipulated by immediate political needs, to say nothing of other currencies. Central bank balance sheets have expanded tenfold, even twentyfold, since Bitcoin's inception. In this ocean of money, in the free world of digital technology, cryptocurrencies are less a digital gold and more a rebellion by "bad boys" against a rigid, uninteresting establishment. Coincidentally, the political world has also birthed a "bad boy," an extreme right-wing libertarian: Donald Trump. The right-wing engineer and the right-wing politician have found common ground, forming an alliance that drives the industrial and political civilizational wave propelling Bitcoin's repeated explosive growth.