Bitcoin broke through $30000, indicating a bullish trend. However, the market is still in a transitional period and further development is needed to establish a sustained upward trend
Bitcoin broke through $30000, indicating a bullish trend. However, the market is still in a transitional period and further development is needed to establish a sustained upward trend.
After several consecutive weeks of falling below the $30000 mark, the price of Bitcoin [BTC] has recently shown an upward trend, finally breaking through the $30000 mark.
Although this surge may indicate a bullish period for the king's currency, a recent report by Glassnode indicates that the market is still in a transitional stage.
The transformation of Bitcoin continues
The price trend of Bitcoin has undergone significant changes, breaking the threshold of $30000. Although this breakthrough is significant, according to Glassnode's data, it has not yet triggered a comprehensive bull market.
The market is still in a transitional stage, indicating the need for further development before establishing a sustained upward trend.
The previous Bitcoin market stage was easily evaluated based on its duration to gain a deeper understanding of the future situation. We can establish a benchmark by examining the days of bull, bear, and transition periods.
The transition phase is measured from the historical low point (ATL) of a cycle until reaching a new historical high point (ATH).
The low point experienced in November 2022 remains unchanged, and it can be said that the market has been in a prolonged period of 227 days. Historical data shows that the previous transition period was around 459 to 770 days, indicating that investors may need an average of 8 to 18 months of patience to emerge in a new market ATH.
During these transitional periods, Bitcoin prices fluctuate within the range of+0.5 standard deviation between realized and realized prices. It is worth noting that the bear market has been ongoing for 593 days.
Current price trend
At the time of writing, the trading price of Bitcoin is approximately $30600, reflecting a marginal increase of less than 1% in its value. From the positioning of its Relative strength index (RSI), it is obvious that the current trend shows a bullish nature.
The RSI above 70 indicates a strong bull market trend and overbought conditions.
Historical patterns indicate that whenever RSI enters the region, a correction trend usually occurs. Therefore, this indicates that there may be a pullback in the short term.
Exchange supply continues to decline
By examining the Bitcoin supply held by the exchange, a continuous decline can be observed. According to Santiment's data, as of the time of writing, the supply volume of exchanges accounts for 6.2% of the total supply volume.
These data are consistent with Glassnode's survey results, indicating that Bitcoin holders are taking a patient attitude and eagerly waiting for the asset to enter a comprehensive bull market trend.
In addition, analysis of active addresses and transaction volume data on Santiment shows that regular activities within the Bitcoin network still exist. This observation further reinforces the notion that holders are waiting for opportunities during the ongoing transition phase.
This indicates that they maintain their positions and patiently anticipate favorable market conditions before taking significant actions.
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