Bitcoin Rebounds to $63,500, Can Altcoins Follow Suit?Last week, Bitcoin fell to around $60,000 due to the conflict in the Middle East. However, with the recent release of positive employment data in the US, Bitcoin prices have rebounded
Bitcoin Rebounds to $63,500, Can Altcoins Follow Suit?
Last week, Bitcoin fell to around $60,000 due to the conflict in the Middle East. However, with the recent release of positive employment data in the US, Bitcoin prices have rebounded. It broke through the $63,980 high point early this morning (7th), and is currently trading at $63,500.
Despite a slow start to October, often referred to as "Uptober," the market generally expects things to improve going forward. From a daily chart perspective, Bitcoin has rebounded from the 50-day moving average ($60,589), indicating that bulls are attempting to form a higher low. If prices can stay above the 20-day moving average ($62,237) in the future, upward momentum could further strengthen, increasing the possibility of a breakout to $66,500. This level could attract short-sellers, but if the bulls can break through strongly, Bitcoin is expected to rise further to $70,000. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls back below the 50-day moving average, it could plummet to $57,500, then down to the crucial support level of $54,000.
Besides Bitcoin, several altcoins are currently performing strongly. The following is an analysis of the short-term support and resistance levels of APT, WIF, and FTM. This is for reference only and should not be considered investment advice.
APT Price Analysis
From the daily chart, APT's 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA, $7.89) is starting to trend upwards, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also in the buy zone, indicating that bulls are in control. APT will attempt to rise to the head-and-shoulders bottom pattern target of $11.
However, if APT turns downwards and breaks below $7.65, the short-term bullish view will be invalidated, meaning there has been a fake breakout, and APT could fall to $5.66.
WIF Price Analysis
Bears are defending the upward resistance level on the declining trendline for WIF, but a positive sign is that the price has not broken below the 20-day EMA ($2.09). From the daily chart, WIF's two moving averages (MA, EMA) have started to move upward, and the RSI is also in the buy zone, indicating bullish dominance.
Bulls must keep the price above the declining trendline to signal a potential trend shift; bears will attempt to prevent a rise in the $2.64-$2.89 range. But if the bulls prevail, WIF could rise further to $3.50. Conversely, if WIF turns downwards and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it means bulls have surrendered their positions, and it may subsequently fall to the 50-day moving average ($1.77).
FTM Price Analysis
FTM completed a head-and-shoulders bottom pattern when it broke through $0.55. Typically, after a key level is broken for the first time, the market often retests that level. From the daily chart, the 20-day EMA ($0.62) could serve as short-term support.
If FTM continues to rise and breaks through $0.70, it indicates the resumption of an upward trend, after which it could rise to the pattern target of $0.83, eventually reaching $0.93. Conversely, if FTM turns downwards and breaks below the breakout level of $0.55, the short-term bullish view will be invalidated.
Future Outlook
This week, the market will focus on several key factors, including:
- Can ETF inflows continue to be significant?
- Powell's forward guidance on interest rates ahead of the meeting?
- How will non-farm payroll data perform?
These factors will directly impact whether dollar assets can continue to flow into the cryptocurrency market. Currently, the probability of a 50-basis point (2-code) rate cut in November remains above 50%, but there is significant uncertainty (1 code or 2 codes). Ultimately, we need to observe the unemployment rate. High unemployment and a larger rate cut will push the market towards recession expectations; the opposite would be insufficient easing. Only low unemployment and a high rate cut are ideal; high unemployment and a low rate cut are the worst.
The first two factors are relatively in line with expectations. The latter is a mixture of bullish and bearish, but both will take place in November. The market is currently speculating.
Historically, in years when Bitcoin saw gains in September, October had a 100% probability of recording gains, only differing in the magnitude of the gains. Although A-shares have shown some localized bloodletting, the US remains the dominant player, so we should still be optimistic. A main upswing starting in October is highly probable historically. From 2013 to 2023, only in October 2014 and October 2018 did the market record losses. At the same time, we are currently at the global liquidity injection phase, so patiently waiting for great fortune is the most cost-effective option.
As for other things in the crypto market, all we can see now are meme coins, animals from the zoo running around, truly a case of bad money driving out good. Investors in the entire market are running around like headless chickens, with no real-world application and no new narratives. Bitcoin is holding at a high level, and the smaller coins are trying to survive. So, the previous view remains: great brilliance > going to the stock market first > going to Bitcoin > going to smaller coins > and finally maybe art or NFTs and other niche assets.
Regarding Ethereum, we can only say that none of the current public chains have shown signs of surpassing it. As long as the overall trend has not changed, we just need to be patient and act less. The good news is that the ETH/BTC exchange rate has slightly rebounded recently, but the change is far from enough. The strategy is centered on holding.
Currently, retail investors in the Ethereum market basically have no good opportunities to enter. The key is to lay out for high-quality altcoins in the future, aiming to achieve a return of no less than 10 times this year.
If you are currently fully invested or your positions are heavy, and you don't know what to do, you can also contact me to see if you need to adjust your positions.
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