Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs: Inflow and Outflow Data Reveal Market TrendsAs of September 13, the total net assets of Bitcoin ETFs reached $53.72 billion, with daily inflows of $159
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs: Inflow and Outflow Data Reveal Market Trends
As of September 13, the total net assets of Bitcoin ETFs reached $53.72 billion, with daily inflows of $159.4 million and outflows of $165.4 million. Ethereum ETFs had a total net asset of $6.6 billion, with a daily outflow of $2.2 million.
Bitcoin ETFs
Among Bitcoin ETFs, ARKB and BITB saw the highest daily inflows, at $99.3 million and $43.1 million, respectively. Other Bitcoin ETFs experienced relatively smaller daily inflows, such as EZBC with a net inflow of $5.2 million, HODL with a net inflow of $5.1 million, and GBTC with a net inflow of $6.7 million.
Ethereum ETFs
The main daily inflow for Ethereum ETFs came from Bitwise, with $5.2 million. Other Ethereum ETFs had zero net inflows for the day. Notably, Grayscale ETHE experienced a daily net outflow of $74,000.
Legendary Analyst Remains Confident in ETH's Future
Benjamin Cowen, a renowned analyst, recently expressed confidence in Ethereum's (ETH) future, believing it could soon surpass Bitcoin (BTC). He analyzed the current market conditions, comparing price movements of Bitcoin and Ethereum and noting that Ethereum follows a distinct trend pattern in each cycle.
Cowen believes that despite recent volatility in the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum, Ethereum's downtrend will end by the year's end, setting the stage for recovery. He predicts that the ETH/BTC pair price will bottom out by the year-end, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy changes. Cowen forecasts Ethereum's price might dip below $2,000 in Q4 before rebounding to new levels.
Market Analysis: Is the Bull Run Over?
Cowen suggests the market has undergone the quantitative tightening (QT) phase of the bull run and is preparing for the quantitative easing (QE) bull run in 2025.
Data References: Predicting the Next Bull Cycle
To predict the price range for the next bull cycle's peak, we can consult the following data:
- RealizedPrice (RPC): RPC is the realized market capitalization divided by the circulating supply, serving as the average cost of on-chain chips. The current RPC value is $31,400.
- CumulativeValue-DaysDestroyed (CVDD): CVDD is an algorithm model that predicts BTC's price lows, considering the number of days Bitcoin transfers have been made and the market price to gauge on-chain activity. The current CVDD value is $23,800, indicating that the next bear market will not see BTC prices below $24,000.
- ATH Price Pullback: Examining the previous three cycles, the BTC price has fallen by an average of -80% from its bull market peak to its bear market trough. Considering the ETF's approval and the influx of significant long-term capital theoretically raising BTC's price floor, we assume a -60% to -70% drop from the peak to the trough this bull run.
Based on this data, we can draw the following conclusions:
- The next bear market's bottom will occur between $24,000 and $31,000.
- The next bear market's decline from its cycle peak will be -60% to -70%.
- The bull cycle's peak will land between $80,000 and $103,000.
Conclusion:
Inflow and outflow data from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs and insights from legendary analysts provide us with glimpses of market trends. However, the market is full of uncertainties, and any predictions should be treated with caution.
Do you think Ethereum's performance will surpass Bitcoin in this bull run? Share your thoughts in the comments!
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