Bitcoin Faces a Fork in the Road as Election Day Looms: Trump Win Could Drive Prices Up to $90,000, Harris Victory Might Send It Plunging to $30,000As November's election day approaches, Bitcoin is also getting closer to breaking out of its narrow trading range for the year, Bernstein analysts say. The flagship cryptocurrency has spent most of the year bouncing between $55,000 and $70,000 after reaching an all-time high in March and is likely to stay in this range until the United States decides its next president on November 5
Bitcoin Faces a Fork in the Road as Election Day Looms: Trump Win Could Drive Prices Up to $90,000, Harris Victory Might Send It Plunging to $30,000
As November's election day approaches, Bitcoin is also getting closer to breaking out of its narrow trading range for the year, Bernstein analysts say. The flagship cryptocurrency has spent most of the year bouncing between $55,000 and $70,000 after reaching an all-time high in March and is likely to stay in this range until the United States decides its next president on November 5.
Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani says the outcome of the election whether former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris wins could have a significant impact on Bitcoin's price.
We expect the difference between the two political outcomes to be stark," he said in a note Monday. "If Trump wins, we expect Bitcoin to go on to make new all-time highs and to reach a range of close to $80,000 to $90,000 in the fourth quarter. However, if Harris wins, we expect Bitcoin to move through the current bottom of $50,000 and to test the $30,000-$40,000 range, which was the price range where the Bitcoin ETF momentum kicked in in the fourth quarter of 2023."
Standard Chartered has predicted that Bitcoin could soar to $150,000 if Trump wins. Trump has made significant overtures to the cryptocurrency industry this summer, positioning himself as a pro-crypto candidate by speaking at the Bitcoin summit in Nashville this year and saying he would fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler if elected.
Harris has not publicly expressed an opinion on cryptocurrencies. Many in the industry were disappointed that her campaign teams recently shared policy positions did not mention Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies.
A pro-crypto election outcome and a positive regulatory environment are not yet priced into the market," Chhugani said. Todays crypto market is a testament to the survival story in the most challenging macro and regulatory environment. And the fact that Bitcoin has rallied 112% in the last 12 months speaks to the underlying resilience of a decentralized digital asset and the recent success of the ETF."
A positive regulatory environment will remove the policy risk of financial institutions and banks participating, eliminating the competitive hurdle to digital assets from traditional assets in institutional flows, he added. After a regulatory purge over the past three years, a positive crypto regulatory policy can reinvigorate innovation and bring users back to financial products on the blockchain."
Democratic lawmakers have often been seen as less friendly toward cryptocurrencies, largely due to Senator Elizabeth Warrens (D-Mass.) vocal opposition to the asset class and Genslers past legal entanglements with the crypto community compared to their Republican counterparts.
However, the landscape is shifting rapidly. TDCowen recently pointed out that, if Harris wins the election, her administration could be less hostile to cryptocurrencies than that of President Joe Biden, though the gap is harder to assess than a potential second Trump term.
Trumps enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies contrasted with Harris silence shapes the future direction of Bitcoins price. While the two candidates have vastly different views on cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin has shown resilience in the face of global economic and geopolitical uncertainties and continues to attract investors.
Regardless of the outcome, the election could bring new opportunities and challenges for the cryptocurrency market. Market participants will closely watch the election results and the direction of future policies to make investment decisions.
Further analysis on how the election outcome could affect Bitcoin's price:
- Trump wins: Trumps support for cryptocurrencies and his potential actions against the SEC would create a positive regulatory environment for the crypto market. This would attract more institutional investors into the market, driving Bitcoins price up.
- Harris wins: Harris's stance on cryptocurrencies is unclear, but her campaign team's lack of mentioning Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies has raised concerns about regulatory uncertainty. This could lead to institutional investors taking a wait-and-see approach, and Bitcoins price might be suppressed.
In addition to the election outcome, the following factors could also affect Bitcoins price:
- Macroeconomic environment: Volatility in the global economy, such as changes in inflation and interest rates, could affect Bitcoins price.
- Technological developments: Technological upgrades to the Bitcoin network and the emergence of new applications could impact Bitcoins value.
- Market sentiment: Investors confidence in the cryptocurrency market will affect Bitcoins price fluctuations.
Conclusion:
The election outcome will have a significant impact on Bitcoins price. A Trump victory would propel Bitcoins price higher, while a Harris win could lead to a price decline. However, it is important to note that many factors influence Bitcoins price, and the election outcome is just one of them. Investors need to consider all factors in a comprehensive manner to make informed investment decisions.
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