Is Bitcoin's Dip a Cause for Panic? Old Fish's Trading Notes Reveal the Truth!The cryptocurrency market is shrouded in a lingering gloom as it experiences a two-week downturn. Many investors are starting to feel anxious and uneasy, even prominent figures like "Shenyu" have publicly expressed pessimism, predicting the bear market will continue for another 16-19 months
Is Bitcoin's Dip a Cause for Panic? Old Fish's Trading Notes Reveal the Truth!
The cryptocurrency market is shrouded in a lingering gloom as it experiences a two-week downturn. Many investors are starting to feel anxious and uneasy, even prominent figures like "Shenyu" have publicly expressed pessimism, predicting the bear market will continue for another 16-19 months. However, there are also bullish voices in the market. For instance, Zhu Su bought the dip on Ethereum at $2240, and the CEO of Jan3 believes that trader predictions of Bitcoin dropping to $40,000 lack technical and fundamental support, and the current market panic is unlikely to persist.
Faced with these contrasting opinions, many investors are left in a state of confusion: should they wait for a high point to enter the market, or wait for a low point to buy the dip? Is now the best time to enter?
Market Status: Consolidation with Rebound
Over the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across all cryptocurrency contracts reached $101 million, with liquidations of short positions accounting for the vast majority at $76.3 million, leading to the liquidation of over 29,000 accounts. However, Bitcoin and Ethereum have made significant gains recently during their rebound from the lows. Bitcoin is currently trading within a range of $54,000 to $56,000, forming a consolidation pattern.
In terms of technical analysis, the second attempt at testing the $52,500 level was successful, but volume and other indicators suggest that the strength was not robust. On the 4-hour timeframe, $59,000 has become a resistance level, and its breakout will determine the next target, which is $63,000. This level will also be crucial in determining whether the price will continue to rise. Currently, the market is in a rebound trend on a larger timeframe, and the price is still rising on a smaller timeframe. Only a sustained break above $60,000 will truly signal a bullish reversal, otherwise, it will remain just a rebound.
Events Impacting Market Trends: CPI and US Presidential Debate
Two major events are scheduled for this week: the release of the CPI and the debate between Trump and Harris. The debate will inevitably address the implications of various economic policies, potentially creating some positive sentiment in the market.
Long-Term Trend: Rebound within a Bear Market
From a broader timeframe perspective, the market is still in a bear trend, and the current rise should be considered a rebound. After the third wave of rebound on the 1-hour timeframe, the market is likely to continue its decline.
Impact of Interest Rate Cuts: Expectations vs. Reality
The market is widely expecting that interest rate cuts will trigger a surge in the crypto space. However, based on past experiences, expectations surrounding interest rate cuts tend to be overhyped, and the actual outcomes often fall short of the anticipation. For example, last year's Bitcoin ETF and this year's halving, which were initially met with immense enthusiasm, ultimately turned into disappointments.
So, the impact of interest rate cuts will be similar. When interest rate cuts are implemented, market sentiment and capital flows will undoubtedly have a positive impact on the crypto space, but this won't be the beginning of a bull market. It's more likely to spark a brief surge followed by a subsequent correction.
The Arrival of a Bull Market: A Trump Comeback?
A true bull market might only arrive if Trump returns to power. He could potentially roll out a series of policies aimed at stimulating consumer spending, which would offer positive expectations for the cryptocurrency market, potentially propelling the space into a larger stage of development.
Market Volatility: A Normal Phenomenon
Big drops, big rises, and liquidations are all normal occurrences in the market. The most important thing is to stay alive, to have funds available to seize opportunities. Don't worry too much about anything else.
Investor Mindset: Navigating Through Difficult Times
The spot market needs to weather this difficult period in cryptocurrency history, remaining calm and composed in the face of adversity.
Summary:
The cryptocurrency market currently finds itself in a period of uncertainty, but this also signifies immense opportunities. Investors need to analyze the market situation calmly, make rational decisions, and prioritize risk management. Remember, no matter how volatile the market becomes, the most vital thing is to weather this difficult period and grab the chances that the future holds.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk, and investors should proceed with caution.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is sourced from the internet. The copyright of the text, images, and other materials belongs to the original author. The platform reprints the materials for the purpose of conveying more information. The content of the article is for reference and learning only, and should not be used for commercial purposes. If it infringes on your legitimate rights and interests, please contact us promptly and we will handle it as soon as possible! We respect copyright and are committed to protecting it. Thank you for sharing.(Email:[email protected])
