The Bitcoin rebound continues, but how difficult will it be to break through $70,000?Last night, before the US stock market opened, the price of Bitcoin had already broken through $55,500. However, after the US stock market opened, there was a surprising drop, falling nearly $1,000 within an hour
The Bitcoin rebound continues, but how difficult will it be to break through $70,000?
Last night, before the US stock market opened, the price of Bitcoin had already broken through $55,500. However, after the US stock market opened, there was a surprising drop, falling nearly $1,000 within an hour. This was clearly a bearish trap! For investors who lack the necessary determination, this drop was undoubtedly very tempting, and it would be easy to miss the subsequent rebound. I almost got washed out of my long position at $54,000, but luckily I held on and ultimately reaped the benefits of this rebound.
Currently, the price of Bitcoin has pulled back somewhat, but the overall trend remains positive. A sharp rise is inevitably followed by a pullback, and a deep fall is inevitably followed by a rebound. The rebound trend is now open, and this trend will continue until interest rate cuts come through. Once interest rate cuts are implemented, we will decisively take profits, because what we are trading is really just expectations.
Looking back at the decline of Bitcoin from $65,000, this is likely the bottom. However, it remains unknown whether the current rebound can break through the previous decline. If we cannot be certain, we can only treat it as a rebound against the recent fall, which is the fall from $65,000 to $52,550. Currently, the space and level of the rebound are relatively small, and chasing the market will face significant risks. Additionally, the price of Bitcoin has currently reached the previous consolidation range and is showing signs of consolidation, making the current market volatile and unpredictable. Therefore, I will continue to maintain 1/3 of my position holding the largest coins (originally 50% of my position, which I cut down to 1/3) and the altcoins I acquired through profit-taking. We will continue to observe the market and consider adding or reducing positions after the market becomes clearer.
I believe many of you will be wondering, in this situation, how high can BTC rise? $80,000? The answer to this question requires analysis of on-chain data. Of course, I hope the price of Bitcoin can rise significantly. However, there are also some worries.
Remember the rally at the beginning of the year, in March, when it broke through $70,000? Do you remember the URPD data for BTC at the end of February? As shown in the figure, on February 22nd, the price of BTC was at $51,500, and there were almost no resistance chips above $51,500. The maximum did not exceed 200,000 coins. Combined with the sentiment and liquidity at that time, as well as the strong buying power, the market directly broke through $69,000 and reached the $70,000 mark.
Therefore, if at the end of the year, sentiment can be boosted, liquidity is ample, and positive news continues to flow, then the resistance chip levels will become crucial. Let's take a look at today's URPD data. As shown in the figure, the current price is around $55,000, and above $55,000, the chip accumulation corresponding to several price ranges has exceeded 300,000 coins. This makes me worried.
Fortunately, back in late August, the price also reached around $65,000. At that time, market sentiment was not so negative, and the market's elasticity was still good. There are still two months left before the November election, so I hope the high-priced chips above $62,000 can be washed out a bit, releasing upward momentum. After all, even if the election rally really does occur, its effect on sentiment and the market after the water release is completely incomparable. The impact on altcoins of breaking through $73,700 and failing to break through will definitely be different. Of course, we all hope the price can break through to higher levels, but we cannot chase the market excessively. At that time, we also need to pay attention to the US macroeconomic situation, such as unemployment rate, economic growth, inflation, etc.
Because even if the election rally really does occur, the US economy still faces the risk of recession later. We need to be vigilant about this. Even just the expectation of a recession is enough to cause the market to pull back, let alone an actual recession, which would definitely lead to a significant market downturn.
Finally, returning to the point made at the beginning of the article: there are big trends and small trends. Ultimately, it depends on each user's trading strategy, position management, and whether they are seeking long-term investment or short-term trading. Regardless of the strategy adopted, it is necessary to remain calm, rationally analyze the market, and formulate a reasonable investment plan.
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