"Red" September? Five Things to Watch for Bitcoin This Week

"Red" September? Five Things to Watch for Bitcoin This WeekSeptember began with a less-than-ideal price performance for Bitcoin. Both monthly and weekly closings drove BTC prices down, trading close to spot demand at $57,000, signaling low trader interest and a marked lack of bullish sentiment

"Red" September? Five Things to Watch for Bitcoin This Week

September began with a less-than-ideal price performance for Bitcoin. Both monthly and weekly closings drove BTC prices down, trading close to spot demand at $57,000, signaling low trader interest and a marked lack of bullish sentiment. Will the market succumb to another "red" September? While the "red" zone status of Bitcoin returns this month has been well documented, not all forecasts are bleak. The mid-$60,000 range remains attractive as a short-term BTC price target, and September also marks the deadline for the completion of the post-halving "reaccumulation range" for Bitcoin. The macro environment is expected to remain calm this week with a lack of major US data releases placing unemployment figures as the key topic of interest. As Bitcoin continues to fluctuate, Cointelegraph has analyzed the key discussion points from market participants at the start of the month.

BTC Price Hits August Low

Bitcoin's recent monthly close, while sluggish, remains volatile. Data from Cointelegraph MarketsPro and TradingView show that bulls have been unable to overcome selling pressure, with popular trader Skew highlighting this as characteristic of the low time frame market condition. "There was a distinct spot buyer at around $58,000 for most of last week, which was a key background for the bounce," he wrote in a recent X analysis. "Right now, the price is pretty close to spot demand, but we need to see confirmation from buyers and passive buyers at the demand."

Nevertheless, Skew highlighted that there is a general lack of interest in the derivatives market at the current price point, suggesting that funding rates may remain "negative or low" as a result. He continued, "I do see that the market is likely to be short-biased overall, hedging the spot selling done over the last week. "However, almost no market positioning has grown since the drop to $58,000 ~ which tells me people have gotten out of the way."

Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows that as of Sept. 2, most bids supported are clustered around $56,750.

Other traders believe there is a chance of a dip to a local low before the bulls get relief, with predictions including $56,000 and $54,000. "They are more likely to take the price up to 56k and sweep the Tuesday low before continuing their rally. Remember, they may still want to pull a big rug by taking the price up to 49k (Monday August 5th low)," Madara predicts. "If the bounce does happen after 56k, then I expect a bounce to 60.5k first then to 65k."

Trader CaptainFaibik believes the months potential bounce could even push the market as high as $68,000.

Eyes on U.S. Jobs Report for Labor Day Week

With the U.S. closed for Labor Day on Sept. 2, traders will be waiting for any macro-related volatility to emerge later this week. Macro data is crucial to market expectations setting before the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for Sept. 18. The latest data from CMEGroups FedWatch Tool suggests a 0.25% rate cut as the most likely outcome of the meeting.

This contrasts starkly with expectations a month ago, with a 0.5% cut being the focus amid turmoil in Japan. Meanwhile, U.S. unemployment figures will be in the spotlight this week, with a relatively quiet start to the month overall. Trading resource TheKobeissiLetter told X followers: Expect volatility to pick up, trading conditions to be good, and keep an eye on the August jobs number. Kobeissi revealed that the stock market has rallied since the early August lows, with the S&P 500 adding $250 billion in market capitalization on average each trading day since then. Another X post noted: The S&P 500 has achieved its average annual return in 20 trading days. As Cointelegraph reported, equities and gold have performed significantly better than the crypto market in recent weeks, with Bitcoin remaining sluggish despite a brief 40% rebound.

Are We Ready for "Red" September?

BTC/USD ultimately fell 8.6% in August, setting the stage for a bleak September showing. Data from CoinGlass shows that the ninth month of the year has a tendency to generate losses, with an average decline of around 4.5%. Conversely, August typically marks a green month, with this years performance marking a historical low. Still, it may only be a matter of time history may still be on the side of the bulls.

In some of his latest market commentary, prominent trader and analyst RektCapital has suggested that BTC/USD is still working toward achieving its post-halving breakout, in line with prior halving events. "Historically, Bitcoin tends to breakout 150-160 days after a halving," he explained in an Aug. 31 X post. "This means that Bitcoin should break out of its reaccumulation range in late September 2024."

RektCapital acknowledged that even Bitcoin's best September ever saw a gain of only 6%. However, October could change the game, with average monthly returns closer to 23%. He concluded: I wouldnt be surprised if Bitcoin consolidates a bit further after late September and then goes on to breakout in October. After all, historically, October has been a strong month.

Puell Multiple Hints at Buying Opportunity

The concept of Bitcoins bull market being in a period of transition is also supported by the classic Puell Multiple metric. This multiple compares the value of all Bitcoin mined daily against its 365-day moving average to determine relative buy and sell zones. As defined by CryptoQuant, Puell answers the question, If all mined Bitcoin was sold on the market immediately, how profitable would the mining pools be compared to last year?

Currently, the Puell Index is neither at a macro top nor a macro bottom, instead slowly trending toward its green long-term "buy" zone, which is characterized by readings of 0.5 or lower. As Cointelegraph reported, this could prevent a reliable market entry with prices unlikely to dip below current spot.

Analysis of the trend over the last decade showed that when this index falls below the 0.6 threshold, it often represents an ideal opportunity for dollar-cost averaging (DCA). Conversely, breaking above the 0.8 level has historically been correlated with bullish market behavior, often pushing prices toward all-time highs (ATH), CryptoQuant contributor Grizzly wrote in a Quicktake blog post over the weekend. Currently, the Puell Multiple Index is hovering between these two key thresholds.

Deep Learning Model Favors BTC Price Rebound

While September has traditionally been a red month for BTC/USD, new analysis indicates that 2024 may be an exception. In another Quicktake post on Sept. 1, CryptoQuant used a WaveNet deep learning model to predict a relative rise in the BTC price. In June, a similar experiment correctly predicted the next months gold price, which would hover below $60,000.

For CryptoOnchain, the analyst compiling the latest data, these are acceptable and close-to-reality predictions. For this, we used all data from 2012 to the present as features. The wavenet model's output shows the probability of a relative rise in the Bitcoin price next month, he commented.

The accompanying results chart shows an upward price trend with a 50% chance of the price moving higher than $65,000 in September.

CryptoOnchain explained: A range of 0.5 indicates that the probability of the Bitcoin price being within that range is 50%, while a range of 0.9 indicates that the probability of the Bitcoin price being within that range is 90%.