Has Bitcoin's Bottom Accumulation Completed and the Next Bull Run Begun?Following the positive news last night, Bitcoin's price directly broke through the small parallel channel, subsequently embarking on a series of hammering actions, leading to significant losses for high-leverage long and short positions. Many retail investors believed this was merely a temporary fluctuation, unaware of the complexity that lay ahead
Has Bitcoin's Bottom Accumulation Completed and the Next Bull Run Begun?
Following the positive news last night, Bitcoin's price directly broke through the small parallel channel, subsequently embarking on a series of hammering actions, leading to significant losses for high-leverage long and short positions. Many retail investors believed this was merely a temporary fluctuation, unaware of the complexity that lay ahead. During the volatile market, another piece of positive news emerged at 10 PM, driving Bitcoin's price upward in a "Spring" rally. Retail investors once again opted to chase buy orders, only to be met with another nightmare as the price plummeted from 59,800 to 57,700. Even investors with low leverage could not bear the sustained downward trend and opted to cut their losses. Ultimately, institutions successfully completed their accumulation at the bottom, snatching low-priced chips from retail investors.
The main channel for this accumulation cycle ranged from 58,000 to 62,000. After the price broke below the crucial psychological level of 58,000, it rapidly rebounded in a V shape around 57,700. At this point, most retail investors had either blown up their positions or were too intimidated by fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) to take a position. Institutions swiftly pushed the price above 59,000, leaving retail investors behind. After breaking through 59,000, retail investors chased the rally again, only to face another round of harvesting from the "reaper." Completely disheartened, retail investors likely exited the market, missing out on the opportunity to bury themselves at the bottom. When the price climbs above 62,000, they will likely return, fantasizing about another chance to get in at 58,000!
This round of Bitcoin's bottom positioning landed perfectly around 57,700, slightly breaking out of the main trend channel. The typical "Spring" amplitude wasn't exaggerated, and while it did inflict losses on positions entering at 58,000, it didn't provide much profit space for short positions, making it an ideal location. Conversely, other altcoins, including SOL, experienced more significant price drops, highlighting why we consistently emphasize buying Bitcoin first when the market is unstable, and avoiding hasty investments in altcoins. After Bitcoin stabilizes, you can observe the altcoins, and you'll find golden-priced opportunities everywhere.
The 4th line (yellow) is a pressure trend line supported by at least four key points. In the early morning hours, it retraced and touched this level but couldn't break through. After another round of consolidation, it effectively broke through around 6 AM, which can be seen as a sign of a trend shifting from bearish to bullish. Even if it retraces again, the main direction is recommended to be upwards. The 5th line (blue) is a smaller-level support trend line. If Bitcoin does not break this line, it will force a continuous rally. However, if it does break, it will retrace somewhat, but this does not signal a trend reversal.
Since Bitcoin's sustained drop in early August, the panic-driven sell-off broke below 50,000, washing out 3 times the leverage in the market. It will be difficult for the price to plunge again without significant selling pressure. After the sharp drop, the rebound and consolidation have resulted in a lackluster market sentiment, fostering a bearish mentality and cultivating counter-parties. With enough counter-parties, during the consolidation phase, as long as the price surpasses the stronger region of the consolidation range (61,500-65,000), stop-loss orders from short positions will propel the market upwards.
If Bitcoin bulls lack confidence, imagine this: after halving, the current Bitcoin price is equivalent to 29,500 pre-halving. The lowest point, 49,000, is equivalent to 25,000 pre-halving. This week's high of 65,000 is equivalent to 32,000 pre-halving. The range from 32,000 to 25,000 coincides with the consolidation period from April to October last year, a six-month consolidation. In late October last year, Bitcoin broke above 32,000, launching into a bull run. While Bitcoin's short-term outlook may be weak, its long-term outlook remains optimistic. We anticipate a strong performance in the fourth quarter.
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