Ether may eventually conflict with the U.S
Ether may eventually conflict with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, but at present, key data points show that Ether is expected to maintain the level of $1800.
After the news that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued the Cryptocurrency exchange Binance and Coinbase, the price of Ether was retested at $1780, but it is not absurd to suggest that Ether bulls should be happy that its price did not fall below 67 days.
The SEC's actions are actually a double-edged sword for Ethereum (ETH), and on CryptoTwitter, some analysts attribute the rebound of ETH to its not being listed as a security in any case against Binance and Coinbase. For example, the SEC explicitly mentioned BNB, Solana and Caldano, which are direct competitors of Ethereum's smart contract processing capability.
However, as analyst JevgenijsKazanins pointed out, the omission of Ethereum does not necessarily mean it has obtained SEC approval.
Kazanins raised the question whether SEC could target Ethereum Foundation in another lawsuit. At present, this idea is just groundless speculation, but considering that Gary Gensler, the chairman of the SEC, refused to answer the question about Ether's status in the United States House of Representatives Financial Services Committee in April 2023, it must have its value.
At the same time, traders can focus on the price trend of Ethereum, online data, and other short-term data that affect investor sentiment and prices.
Ethereum DApps slightly improved
TVL measures deposits locked in Ethereum decentralized applications (DApps), which have been in a downward trend since mid March. According to DefiLlama's data, the indicator hit a bottom of 14.35 million ETHs on June 3rd, but rebounded to 14.6 million ETHs on June 6th.
The number of active addresses interacting with DApp is also declining. In the past 30 days, the active addresses of the first 12 DApps running on the Ethereum network have increased by 4%, although the average transaction gas cost remains above $6.50.
If investors are concerned that the possibility of ETH falling below the support level of $1800 is higher, it should be reflected in the increased premium of ETH futures contracts and the cost of protective put options.
With the strengthening of regulations, the Ether derivative indicators remain neutral
Ethereum quarterly futures are very popular in whale and arbitrage platforms. However, the transaction price of these fixed month contracts is usually slightly higher than that of the Spot market, indicating that the seller requires more funds to delay settlement.
Therefore, ETH futures contracts in healthy markets should be traded at an annualized premium of 4% to 8% - a situation known as futures premium, which is not unique to crypto markets.
Professional traders have been avoiding leveraged long positions (bullish bets) based on futures premiums known as basis indicators. However, even if the level of $1780 was retested on June 6, it was not enough to put these whales and Market maker into a bearish mood.
In order to eliminate external factors that may individually affect Ethereum futures, we should analyze the Ethereum options market. The 25% delta skewed indicator compares similar call (call) and put (put) options, which become positive when fear is prevalent, as protective put options have a higher premium than call options.
If traders are concerned about a sharp drop in the price of Ethereum, the skewed indicator will exceed 8%. On the other hand, the general excitement reflects an 8% negative bias. As shown above, the 25% delta deviation on June 5th exceeded the positive threshold of 8%, indicating bearish sentiment. However, it subsequently rebounded to $1880 on June 6th, bringing the indicator back to a neutral state.
The price of Ether looks expected to remain above $1800
In short, these three indicators indicate resilience - with TVL rebounding to 14.6 million ETH, DApps active addresses increasing by 4%, and a weak impact on the Ethernet derivatives market, despite retesting the $1800 level.
According to derivatives indicators, Ethereum's network usage data remained healthy, and the recent retest of 67 day support was not enough to scare professional traders.
Therefore, the bulls seem to have dodged a disaster, greatly reducing the risk of an imminent price collapse.
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