After Bitcoin Breaks Below $85,000, Can a September Rate Cut Ignite the Market?BTC has closed two consecutive weeks in the green after breaking below $85,000, but the rebound has failed to break above the 0.618 resistance level of $62,000, currently remaining in a range-bound consolidation phase
After Bitcoin Breaks Below $85,000, Can a September Rate Cut Ignite the Market?
BTC has closed two consecutive weeks in the green after breaking below $85,000, but the rebound has failed to break above the 0.618 resistance level of $62,000, currently remaining in a range-bound consolidation phase. While the weekly chart shows a healthy bottom adjustment, falling below $54,000 would signal a need for a more extended period of adjustment and digestion.
Market discussions have shifted from "whether there will be a rate cut" to "how much will the rate cut be," with a concentration of macro events suggesting a cautious approach. Recent US employment data indicates that the economy is in a recession, requiring swift action from the Fed. Goldman Sachs predicts three consecutive 25-basis-point rate cuts starting in September, but market expectations for a 50-basis-point cut might be overly aggressive. If the rate cut falls short of expectations, September might not deliver the market's anticipated rally.
Key Dates:
- Wednesday, August 21, 1:35 AM: 2024 FOMC voter and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael Bostic will deliver a speech.
- Thursday, August 22, 2:00 AM: The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting.
- Thursday, August 22, 8:30 PM: The US Department of Labor will release initial jobless claims for the week ending August 17.
- Friday, August 23, 10:00 PM: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a speech on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
Will a September Rate Cut Send Bitcoin Soaring?
The phrase "buy low, sell high" is especially relevant in the current market. Since mid-March, the market has been as volatile as a roller coaster. The price has now fallen to a bottom, nearing the cost of mining, leaving institutions, miners, and retail investors facing challenges.
However, there's no need for excessive anxiety. What the crypto world lacks is a massive bullish surge, not newcomers. Once altcoins experience significant gains, generating a profit-making effect, external funds will flock in.
Institutional investors are currently sitting on the sidelines. They will adjust their strategies based on the direction of the meeting and intervene to drive up prices as the meeting approaches. Consequently, the market may experience further pullbacks or consolidation until a breakout opportunity arises.
Be Patient and Seize Opportunities!
Short-term fluctuations in the crypto market are unpredictable. The current market lacks external capital inflows, with everyone attempting to buy low and sell high, but most struggle to outperform the market. Maintaining a reasonable position, keeping a tight grip on investments, and waiting for the right time is the best strategy.
Prior to the September rate cut meeting, the market may not experience a significant rally and could even retest the lows. Just as children anticipate candy, the closer it gets, the harder it becomes to contain their excitement, but once they taste it, the thrill fades.
The same applies to the market. There might be a brief surge before the meeting, followed by a return to normalcy. Patience and seizing opportunities are key to achieving gains!
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