Fed Rate Cut Expectations Slow, Ethereum Short-Term Strategy AnalysisOn August 14th, after the release of US CPI data, rate traders reduced their expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed at its September meeting to roughly 33 basis points, down from 37 basis points previously. This change reflects the market's lingering doubts about US inflation data
Fed Rate Cut Expectations Slow, Ethereum Short-Term Strategy Analysis
On August 14th, after the release of US CPI data, rate traders reduced their expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed at its September meeting to roughly 33 basis points, down from 37 basis points previously. This change reflects the market's lingering doubts about US inflation data.
While the US CPI inflation rate for July fell below 3% for the first time since the initial surge in inflation in the spring of 2021, some market participants remain disappointed with the data. For example, the US 2-year Treasury yield rose by over 4 basis points, suggesting that some believe the inflation data has not fully stabilized.
Adam Button, an analyst at the financial website Forexlive, said that the market's pricing for Fed rate cuts throughout the year has fallen from 106 basis points before the data release to 103 basis points. This indicates that the market is cautious about the magnitude of future rate cuts and has already priced in more negative surprises. Nevertheless, the unrounded inflation figures are more optimistic than the headline numbers.
ETHUSDT.P Review and Short-Term Strategy
Chart Analysis
1. Overall Trend:
Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading at 2,666.98USDT. The chart shows that ETH has experienced significant volatility recently, and the price has now retreated to a key support area.
2. Key Levels:
- Support: The main support area below is located between 2,582.95USDT and 2,515.26USDT. This area has played a significant role in supporting the recent price pullback.
- Resistance: The resistance area above is located between 2,718.34USDT and 2,787.51USDT. This area has repeatedly served as a resistance level for price rallies in the past, limiting further price increases.
3. Structure Analysis:
The chart shows that ETH prices fell rapidly after reaching the resistance above and broke below the short-term uptrend line. The current price is within the key support zone, indicating that the market is reacting sensitively to this area.
The blue arrows in the chart indicate potential price movement trajectories. If the price finds support at the current support zone and bounces back, it could challenge the resistance area above again. However, if the rebound fails, the price may continue to dip to a lower support zone.
Short-Term Strategy
1. Long Strategy: None
2. Short Strategy:
- When the price approaches the resistance area (2,718.34USDT to 2,787.51USDT), shorts can look for opportunities to enter short positions, particularly if the price stalls at this area and begins to pull back.
Risk Management Measures
- When executing long strategies, if the price fails to stabilize at the support zone and begins to fall, stop losses should be triggered promptly to avoid excessive losses.
- When executing short strategies, if the price breaks through the resistance area above and continues to rise, shorts should exit their positions promptly to avoid risks caused by a reversal in the market.
Conclusion
Ethereum is currently trading between important support and resistance levels, and market sentiment is quite sensitive. In the short term, investors should closely monitor the performance of key support and resistance areas, and develop appropriate long and short strategies based on price patterns and market sentiment. Additionally, it is important to set appropriate risk management measures to navigate potential market fluctuations.
Detailed Analysis:
- Fed Rate Cut Expectations: The expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed at its September meeting has fallen to roughly 33 basis points, reflecting the market's lingering doubts about US inflation data.
- Inflation Data: While the US CPI inflation rate for July fell below 3%, some market participants remain disappointed with the data.
- Market Reaction: The US 2-year Treasury yield rose by over 4 basis points, suggesting that some believe the inflation data has not fully stabilized.
- Market Pricing: The market's pricing for Fed rate cuts throughout the year has fallen from 106 basis points before the data release to 103 basis points, indicating that the market is cautious about the magnitude of future rate cuts.
- Ethereum Price Action: ETH has experienced significant volatility recently, and the price has now retreated to a key support area.
- Key Levels: The main support area below is located between 2,582.95USDT and 2,515.26USDT, while the resistance area above is located between 2,718.34USDT and 2,787.51USDT.
- Structure Analysis: ETH prices fell rapidly after reaching the resistance above and broke below the short-term uptrend line. The current price is within the key support zone, indicating that the market is reacting sensitively to this area.
- Short-Term Strategy: Investors should closely monitor the performance of key support and resistance areas, and develop appropriate long and short strategies based on price patterns and market sentiment.
- Risk Management Measures: When executing long strategies, if the price fails to stabilize at the support zone and begins to fall, stop losses should be triggered promptly to avoid excessive losses. When executing short strategies, if the price breaks through the resistance area above and continues to rise, shorts should exit their positions promptly to avoid risks caused by a reversal in the market.
Summary:
Ethereum is currently trading between important support and resistance levels, and market sentiment is quite sensitive. Investors should exercise caution, closely monitor market developments, and employ appropriate risk management measures.
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