Bitcoin Market Analysis for September: Breakout of the Range, $24,800 at Risk, Downward Trend Likely to ContinuePrefaceHello everyone, I'm Jing Shi. Today is September 1st, let's review the Bitcoin trend in August and look ahead to the market direction in September
Bitcoin Market Analysis for September: Breakout of the Range, $24,800 at Risk, Downward Trend Likely to Continue
Preface
Hello everyone, I'm Jing Shi. Today is September 1st, let's review the Bitcoin trend in August and look ahead to the market direction in September.
August Review: Monthly Close with a Big Red Candle, Strong Bearish Force
The Bitcoin market in August, as expected, continued the correction trend from July, with a big red candle closing on the monthly chart, engulfing several previous monthly candles. The trading volume also increased, indicating that the bearish force remains strong.
Looking back at the July monthly chart, we analyzed that Bitcoin had formed a range, and the July monthly closing was a small red candle, failing to break through the upper range line. This indicated strong resistance above, and the market would correct. The market movement in August fully confirmed this analysis.
September Outlook: High Probability of Breaking Below $24,800, Downward Trend Likely to Continue
Currently, Bitcoin has broken out of the July trading range and closed with a healthy big red candle, suggesting a high probability of breaking below $24,800 in September.
Analyzing the daily trend, while there was a volume-driven bullish candle a few days ago, breaking through the short-term trading range, we must be aware that this does not necessarily mean a sharp rebound. We have always emphasized that analyzing the market requires "an overall view, determining the bull or bear".
Looking back, when Bitcoin was around $31,000, we had already analyzed that its upward trend was over, breaking below the long-term uptrend line and breaking the neckline also signified entering a downtrend. The volume-driven breakdown below $28,600 further confirmed the start of a downtrend.
Therefore, even if a short-term rise occurs, we must consider it within the context of the broader market trend. The bullish indicators at the daily level will be weakened under the overall downward trend, and seemingly strong signals may actually be bull traps.
Yesterday, we also reminded that if the background trend was a healthy upward trend, then the volume-driven bullish candle the day before would have continued to rise, even driven by inertia. But that wasn't the case. Yesterday, Bitcoin closed with a small red candle.
At the same time, $28,600 is a significant resistance level, and the big bullish candle that emerged near this resistance level did not effectively break through, followed by a red candle, indicating very strong resistance above.
Therefore, in yesterday's article, we predicted that after the consolidation, Bitcoin would continue to fall. Today's morning market trend further confirmed this, with Bitcoin closing below $26,000. Those who chased the rise, hoping to catch a rebound, or who believed this level was the "iron bottom" may be stunned.
In summary, both the monthly and daily chart analyses indicate that Bitcoin will likely continue to fall in September, with a high probability of breaking below $24,800.
Risk Warning: Be Cautious of Small-Scale Fluctuations, Operate Prudently
While the overall direction is bearish, don't be confused by small-scale short-term market fluctuations.
Market trends are constantly changing, and small-scale fluctuations can be dramatic. Don't blindly operate based on the content of this article.
Trend Identification: The Most Crucial Step in the Financial Market
In any financial market, identifying the trend is the crucial first step. Trend is the path, the rule, the essence. Only by identifying the rule and grasping the overall direction of the market can we avoid being lost, and avoid the traps set by the main players.
All the technical analysis we've learned, such as Western technical analysis systems, candlestick patterns, entanglement theory, Gann theory, wave theory, etc., are just "techniques", appearances, unpredictable, and easily manipulated by the main players.
Only by understanding the essence of the market, comprehending the rules, and knowing whether the current trend is upward or downward can we better utilize various technical means.
Trend Identification Methods:
- Upward Trend: Look for stop-loss signals, as a pullback due to resistance is just a bear trap, and will eventually continue to rise and break through resistance.
Downward Trend: Look for topping signals after a rebound, as bullish signals are meaningless and will eventually fall back down.
Summary
The Bitcoin market in September is likely to continue falling, with a high probability of breaking below $24,800. We should be cautious of short-term fluctuations on smaller scales, operate prudently and avoid blindly following the trend.
At the same time, we need to keep in mind the importance of trend identification. Only by identifying the market trend can we better utilize technical means, avoid being misled by the market.
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