MatriexportResearch Director andDeFiResearchfounderMarkus ThielenIt is expected that Bitcoin's upward trend will continue and push its price to $40000 by the end of the year.In a recent report, Tillen stated that his optimistic outlook is based on various factors, including the positioning of the options market and expectations for the Fed to adopt a dovish stance
MatriexportResearch Director andDeFiResearchfounderMarkus ThielenIt is expected that Bitcoin's upward trend will continue and push its price to $40000 by the end of the year.
In a recent report, Tillen stated that his optimistic outlook is based on various factors, including the positioning of the options market and expectations for the Fed to adopt a dovish stance.
By the end of the year, the price of Bitcoin will reach $40000, or even $45000, "Thielen said.
Bitcoin (BTC)This year has been on a significant upward trajectory, with value more than doubling.
In the past four weeks alone, leading cryptocurrencies have surged by nearly 40%.
The recent rise has stimulated demand for call options, which are derivatives that provide buyers with the right to purchase the underlying asset at a predetermined price in the future.
Tillen pointed out that the increasing demand for these bullish bets poses the potential for further growth in the cryptocurrency market for market makers who have traditionally traded against clients.
As prices continue to rise, these entities may purchase Bitcoin and hedge their positions, thereby increasing the overall bullish pressure on the market.
Options, inflation, and spot ETFs benefit from the surge in Bitcoin
The options market also plays an important role in Tillen's predictions.
He pointed out that there were two major options scheduled to expire on November 24th and December 29th, with open positions of $3.7 billion and $5.4 billion, respectively.
The number of open call options is 85% higher than put options, with an exercise price of $40000 having the highest number of open contracts.
As the market approaches the level of $40000, more participants will need to purchase Bitcoin to hedge their positions, further pushing up prices.
There will be widespread interest in pushing the price to the level of $40000. Our chances of reaching this level are high
Another supporting factor for bullish sentiment is the decline in US inflation and the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates or easing liquidity.
In the 14 months ending May 2023, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 525 basis points to cope with rising inflation.
However, inflation has recently slowed down, with the US CPI rising by 3.2% in the 12 months to October, sparking market speculation that the Federal Reserve may consider lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy and stimulate investment in risky assets.
Tillen believes that the current inflation rate and interest rates indicate the possibility of future interest rate cuts.
He stated that a 2.0% interest rate difference between the inflation rate (CPI) and interest rates may lead to a 200 basis point interest rate cut next year, which is advantageous compared to the special currency.
Finally, the optimism surrounding the approval of spot exchange traded funds (ETFs) may also contribute to price increases.
Bloomberg analysts believe that the probability of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving one or more spot ETFs before January 10th is 90%.
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