Are whales giving up ETH? Upbit is licensed in Singapore! Explanation of US macroeconomic data

Follow the crypto market situation and understand market trends. Hello everyone, I am Xinyi

Follow the crypto market situation and understand market trends. Hello everyone, I am Xinyi.

The cryptocurrency market has entered a new week, and I will introduce the major events that will occur this week, including the US macroeconomic and token unlocking situation.

Firstly, there are macroeconomic data from the United States. After the release of PPI and CPI last week, there is not much heavy data this week. We will receive retail sales data on Tuesday, and unemployment claims data and home sales data on Thursday. However, in terms of data, US retail sales data, also known as terrorist data, may still affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, but I believe this possibility is no longer significant.

From Monday to Friday this week, there will also be a large number of speeches from Federal Reserve officials, and almost every day there will be speeches from the FOMC voting committee. Previously, due to the dovish remarks made by the officials of the Federal Reserve, it was suggested that the soaring yield of treasury bond bonds since the last interest rate resolution had completed their task, suggesting that it might not be necessary to raise interest rates again before the end of the year. Therefore, the US dollar once fell below the integer level of 106, which is good news for cryptocurrencies. However, the CPI data released last Thursday showed that the overall inflation rate in the United States remained stable at 3.7%, rather than slowing down to 3.6% as expected. This encouraged market participants to bet again on rate hikes, with the possibility of an additional 25 basis points raised from 28% to around 40%. The expected rate cut next year has decreased by about 10 basis points, which has helped the US dollar rebound. However, the probability of raising interest rates has dropped significantly now, so the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting two weeks later has basically confirmed that there will be no interest rate increase, and the probability of not raising interest rates has reached 92%.

In addition, overall and core retail sales for September are expected to slow to 0.2% and 0.1% respectively this Tuesday, while the growth in August was both 0.6%. In the second half of this year, American consumers continued to show extraordinary resilience. After a slow start to the year, US retail spending has become stronger over time, mainly driven by a strong labor market and low unemployment. However, the rise in gasoline prices will undoubtedly lead to a slowdown in discretionary spending. Although retail sales in July and August both reached elastic levels of 0.5% and 0.6%, the September retail sales data is about to be released and is expected to moderate to 0.2%.

Recent US consumer credit data shows that US consumers significantly reduced their spending in September, which increases the risk of unexpected data downturns. In addition, the US industrial production is also expected to slow down the real estate data, which may indicate that the housing market continues to cool. Nevertheless, analysts at FXStreet say that the US economy grew by 5.1% in the third quarter, and the US dollar is unlikely to be strongly hit again due to slightly weaker data. Especially if Federal Reserve officials start talking about raising interest rates again before the end of this round of tightening, even if the US dollar falls again, bulls may see this decline as an opportunity to increase their positions at a more attractive level.

In addition to US economic data and official speeches, there will also be financial reports from major companies in the United States. Following JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley will also release financial reports one after another. The market is currently most concerned about Goldman Sachs' performance, as its retail business exploration has been hindered and its performance in the IPO market has not been satisfactory. In addition to financial stocks, companies such as Tesla and IBM will also release new financial reports, which will affect the trend of some US stocks, and of course, cryptocurrencies may also be affected.

Although Bank of America's financial report exceeded expectations, due to the impact of high interest rates, non-performing loans have begun to increase, and uncertainty is also increasing. In fact, large banks seem to have no problems, but the operating conditions of small banks are still uncertain. Due to the existence of high interest rates, funds still flow to money market funds and other stable and high interest rate areas. But the amount of bank deposits has recently shown a downward trend, in other words, American depositors seem more willing to transfer funds to stable and high interest rates such as money market funds, rather than continuing to deposit in banks.

The most worrying thing is consumers, not banks. According to a consumer survey conducted by the University of Michigan, 49% of the population said last week that their living standards have decreased due to rising prices. Regarding the expected inflation rate in one year, which means that prices rose from 3.2% to 3.8% last month, WTI crude oil prices are still rising, and this crude oil crisis is a very serious issue. People usually believe that the inflation rate is decreasing, but prices themselves are still rapidly rising. The inflation rate is decreasing, but prices themselves are rising, which means that the goods purchased by American consumers such as food and gasoline are still soaring, especially energy prices have recently started to rise again. It is expected that the October CPI and PPI data released next month will further increase. According to OPEC, Russia and other countries continue to reduce production, and conflicts in the Middle East will also become factors driving up energy prices, which will definitely lead to economic slowdown.

Let's return to the topic of the cryptocurrency market. Upbit is the largest trading exchange in South Korea, and its branch, pbitSingapore, has obtained preliminary approval from the Singapore Central Bank and financial regulatory authorities, obtaining a local cryptocurrency license. In October alone, Coinbase, Ripple, and SymbumBank's Singapore entities all obtained license approval from MAS. Push the total number of digital payment token service companies licensed by MAS to 15.

On October 2nd, Coinbase obtained full approval for its MPI license, while encryption trading company GSR obtained preliminary approval for its MPI. Swiss cryptobank subsidiary SymbumSingapore subsequently obtained its MPI license the next day, while Ripple obtained full approval for its MPI license on October 4th. These are all good news, and Singapore has shown a more inclusive attitude.

Next, I need to explain the token unlocking situation this week. There seems to be not much data this week, but the only thing that catches my attention is APE. This token seems to have been declining and has hit a new low for several years, which indirectly reflects the coldness of the NFT market. No one is hyping up NFT anymore, so you need to pay attention to the unlocking situation of APE. It has already fallen below one dollar before, but now it has some recovery. With the new tokens being unlocked this week, APE may struggle to hold onto the one dollar mark.

Now let me take a look at the price of Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin has rebounded by over $27000. From the indicator, the 4-hour RSI is about to hit 70. In the previous 4-hour chart of Bitcoin, when the price was at $27000, the 4-hour RSI was at the bottom, but now it is in the upper half of the range. The same price, but RSI is completely different. Bitcoin is weak during this period, and there is not much trading volume. When this indicator reaches 70, Bitcoin may start to decline, with some resistance around $27400.

The report from Glassnode suggests that the whales of Bitcoin do not seem to have sold or purchased Bitcoin, while the whales of Ethereum appear to be selling or abandoning Ethereum, at least according to the listed data. However, in reality, this may not be the case, as Ethereum whales may be pledging rather than selling. The movements of the whales in Bitcoin and Ethereum may seem different, but in reality, both are accumulating Bitcoin and Ethereum. In fact, people say that cryptowhales are constantly accumulating.

There are also some people who use different data sources for analysis, and the results are somewhat different from Glassnode. Therefore, Glassnode's report has caused some controversy, and these situations have become the focus of the news. Anyway, Bitcoin and Ethereum's Whales still have confidence in this field, and I think this may be a good sign, especially in wars like now, At times of increased risk, underlying data also shows a solid trend.

In the options market, there are currently many $45000 call options being purchased in large quantities, which is somewhat unusual. The purchase of these options is concentrated between the end of this month and the end of next year, as well as intensifying at the end of the year. There are several expectations placed on them, one is the approval of Bitcoin's spot ETF, which is highly anticipated, and the other is the halving of Bitcoin. Another possibility is that as the war progresses, Bitcoin will continue to attract funds. Those who accumulate Bitcoin and hold a bullish stance can be seen in many places. Although these factors may not affect price fluctuations every day, careful observation of these data can help us see changes in trends. Therefore, I often pay attention to the data in the options market, as the market still tends to be boring.

Additionally, there are currently high expectations for Bitcoin's spot ETFs due to a recent lawsuit involving Grayscale and the SEC, which lost. Regarding this issue, people are concerned about whether there will be appeals in the future, but the deadline has not been extended. Therefore, people are now looking forward to ETFs again. If approved, more funds will flow into Bitcoin's spot ETFs.

However, I think it may not be a good time to buy Bitcoin now. The main reason is that people who already have a certain number may not be in a hurry to purchase again, while those who had hoped to invest in Bitcoin in some way but have been watching may not be in a hurry to enter at this time. In addition, the interest rate of more than 5% will now be paid when buying US treasury bond. The interest rate of 5% is indeed very high, and it is still more stable than venture capital. These situations still kill the enthusiasm of investing in Bitcoin. For those who have conducted Bitcoin or other transactions in the short term, once the price rises, they will sell quickly, and the price rise may not be sustained, leading to the continuous selling of Bitcoin, Returning to the starting point of prices, we have seen this situation multiple times in the past two to three months.

In addition, last weekend, the MetaMask related to the APPstore was unable to be downloaded at some point. The MetaMask was removed from the APPstore and then restored approximately 24 hours later, which is somewhat worrying because if the MetaMask cannot be used, the impact is still significant.

Basically, that's the situation. This concludes the content of this issue. If you like these contents, don't forget to like and follow them. Thank you for your support!