To learn more about the coin circle, clickContinuously updating,Prospects for the Trend of Cryptocurrency in the Second Half of 2023: Rainbow without StormhotspotRecently, there have been frequent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, which is a good thing for the market. If interest rate hikes can be stopped early, it is likely that interest rate cuts will be made early next year
To learn more about the coin circle, clickContinuously updating,
Prospects for the Trend of Cryptocurrency in the Second Half of 2023: Rainbow without Storm
hotspot
Recently, there have been frequent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, which is a good thing for the market. If interest rate hikes can be stopped early, it is likely that interest rate cuts will be made early next year. Bostek: I don't think we need to raise interest rates anymore, but if the outlook changes, we may need to further raise interest rates; Kashkari: If the economy becomes more resilient, it may have to raise interest rates further. The potential increase in yields may mean that the Federal Reserve has to reduce its actions, but if this is the market's expectation of the Fed's actions, then we will persist in fulfilling them.
What will be the plot of BTC in October?
1. The US government passed a temporary bill half an hour before the shutdown, allowing for an additional 45 days of operation, coinciding with the US stock market being closed
2. The upgrade in Cancun in November is well-known, but the positive news must have been digested in advance, and the rebound may also occur in October
3. In September, BTC broke the trend of leeks and rose 3.94%. If there is a similar history, October of each year is the month where BTC performs better
Due to the difficulty in breaking through $2000 in Ethereum prices, the bearish Ethereum fractal is combined with lower online activity.
Since its launch, it has received much attention. However, recently, the price of Ethereum has not been able to break through the $2000 mark, which has sparked discussions and attention. The following are the reasons why Ethereum prices did not exceed $2000:
1. Market volatility:The cryptocurrency market has always been highly volatile, and Ethereum is no exception. The fluctuation of prices can be attributed to various factors, including market supply and demand, investor sentiment, and external events. This volatility makes it difficult for Ethereum prices to stabilize and break through the $2000 threshold.
2. The rise of competitors:Although Ethereum holds an important position in the blockchain industry, many competitors have emerged in recent years. The emergence of other blockchain projects and digital currencies has brought competitive pressure to Ethereum, which may have affected its potential for price increases. Investors may shift their funds to other projects with greater growth potential, rather than focusing on Ethereum.
The price of Ethereum's native token Ether has risen by approximately 35% so far in 2023. But its attempts to break through the psychological resistance level of $2000 have been strongly bearish rejected multiple times.
Let's take a closer look at three possible reasons why Ethereum prices have not decisively returned to $2000 since May 2022.
Ethereum prices depict the fractal of bear market cycles
Ethereum is unable to break through $2000 in 2023, similar to the bearish rejection around $425 in 2018-2019.
In both cases, Ethereum appears to be in the recovery phase, while paying attention to the Fibonacci pullback above the Fibonacci line at 0.236.
From 2018 to 2019, the 0.236Fib line was close to $425, which helped limit Ethereum's recovery attempts. By 2023, the line will approach $2000 and once again become a selling area, thereby lowering the price of ETH.
US dollar and Bitcoin strengthen
In recent months, the strengthening of the US dollar has suppressed demand for Ethereum, thereby reducing its ability to decisively break through the $2000 closing price.
The widespread negative correlation between top-level cryptocurrencies and the US dollar is the culprit. Especially in 2023, the weekly correlation coefficient between Ethereum and the US dollar index (DXY) remained negative, as shown below.
At the same time, due to the continuous hype of spot Bitcoin ETFs, Ethereum's performance in 2023 was basically inferior to Bitcoin. For example, the widely tracked ETH/BTC currency pair has fallen by 20% so far this year (YTD).
In addition, according to CoinShares' weekly report, as of 2023, the net capital held by Ethereum related investment funds has decreased by $114 million. In contrast, Bitcoin based funds attracted $168 million during the same period.
Ethereum Network Activity Decline
As of 2023, the total value locked in (TVL) of the entire Ethereum ecosystem has decreased from 18.41 million ETH to 12.79 million ETH. As JPMorgan Chase analysts have recently warned, this highlights the decrease in fund availability, leading to a decline in investors' returns.
The decline in TVL is accompanied by a decrease in the gas cost of the Ethereum network, which reached its annual low on October 5th.
According to DappRadar's data, the number of NFTs and unique active wallets in Ethereum have also decreased by 30% and 16.5% in the past 30 days.
This includes a decline in key metrics for popular applications, including decentralized exchanges such as UniswapV2, DEX aggregator 1inchNetwork, and Ethereum pledge provider Lido.
Ethereum Technology Analysis
Meanwhile, the technical side of Ethereum prices suggests that it may rebound to the 50 day moving average of the index near $1665 (50 day EMA; red wave).
However, from a broad perspective, ETH/USD has been in a bearish sustained pattern, known as an upward triangle.
Therefore, falling below the lower trend line of the triangle may cause prices to plummet to the maximum height of the pattern. In this case, the price of ETH may fall to $1465 and $1560 in October 2023, depending on the point of collapse.
In the short term, breaking the 50 day moving average may cause ETH prices to rise to the upper trend line of the triangle near $1730 in October 2023, consistent with the 200 day moving average (blue wave).
In summary, the reason why Ethereum's price did not exceed $2000 can be attributed to market volatility, the rise of competitors, and the uncertainty of regulatory environment. Investors need to consider these factors comprehensively and make wise choices when making decisions.
Talking about being more optimistic about counterfeit coins
TRONTRX)
TRON (TRX) shows a significant upward trend, which is a noteworthy achievement considering the extreme volatility of the cryptocurrency market this year. Although many other counterfeit currencies are facing significant declines, TRX has successfully broken through new resistance levels and maintained its upward trajectory.
The recent retesting is crucial for the success of TRON and for evaluating its potential trajectory. Analysts say this positive trend may push TRX to break through the $0.10 mark.
The double bottom reversal pattern has emerged, marked by a bullish break at the $0.085 neckline, which was previously an important resistance level in 2023. This breakthrough has further driven up the price of TRX, resulting in a 62% increase so far this year.
As of the latest data, the trading price of TRON was $0.086, with a slight drop of 0.46% during the day. Nevertheless, it remains above the critical support level, maintaining a breakthrough rebound.
According to technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) briefly fell from the oversold area, indicating a slight weakening of the upward trend. Nevertheless, the overall upward trend remains intact, indicating an optimistic outlook.
In addition, the 50 day and 200 day moving averages (EMA) continue to support the upward trend of the daily chart, strengthening its upward trajectory. The golden cross is a bullish signal, further confirming the sustained upward trend of TRON.
Considering the price analysis of Wave Field in October, this indicates that cryptocurrency buyers are facing favorable conditions. In the past two days, prices have mainly followed a bullish trend, with only slight bearish fluctuations observed over the past 24 hours.
As one of the important innovations in blockchain technology, TRON tokens are driving the process of decentralized internet. Its high scalability, smart contract functionality, and low cost and high efficiency characteristics provide it with broad development prospects. I believe that in the near future, TRON tokens will play a more important role in the digital economy.
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