For Bitcoin, this has been a quite pessimistic week, as the cryptocurrency has fallen by about 3% since the beginning of this week. Especially the price trend has made it difficult for Bitcoin to break through $27000, indicating the potential risk of further losses falling below this resistance level in the short term
For Bitcoin, this has been a quite pessimistic week, as the cryptocurrency has fallen by about 3% since the beginning of this week. Especially the price trend has made it difficult for Bitcoin to break through $27000, indicating the potential risk of further losses falling below this resistance level in the short term.
However, according to a cryptocurrency analyst, the current pullback may be the beginning of Bitcoin's historical cycle before each halving.
Analysts show that Bitcoin prices are adjusted based on historical trends
Cryptocurrency analyst RektCapital stated in an article that if there are any signs of Bitcoin's "halving cycle" in history, then a significant price adjustment may be imminent. Halving Bitcoin has halved the block reward for kg.
This situation occurs approximately every four years to slow down the creation of new Bitcoin and control inflation. According to the historical data of the first two Bitcoin halvings, the price of BTC may drop by up to 38% before the next halving.
In the chart shared on X (formerly known as Twitter), RektCapital shows a significant pullback approximately six months before each halving. In the 2015 cycle, BTC retreated by 25% 196 days before halving in 2016.
In 2019, BTC retreated by 38%, with 196 days left before halving in 2020. Therefore, as the next halving is expected to occur around April 2024, the market now appears to be in a golden position for the next adjustment.
Bitcoin's current price is 60% lower than its historical high, similar to halving in the past. There are still 200 days until 2020 to halve, and BTC prices are 60% lower than historical highs. Similarly, 200 days before the halving in 2016, the price of BTC was 65% lower than its historical high.
What does adjusting the comparison currency mean
The price direction of Bitcoin is currently uncertain, especially with on chain transactions on the blockchain currently at a three-month low. On chain indicators show that 95% of Bitcoin's current supply has not changed hands in the past month, as investors seem to hold this cryptocurrency and wait for SEC approval for spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Although past performance may not always be repeated, if this pattern reappears before the next halving, Bitcoin may experience a significant adjustment. The current BTC price is $26770, and if a 38% pullback occurs, BTC may fall below $18000. If this situation occurs, it would be devastating compared to the holders of special coins.
Although price adjustments may be imminent, Bitcoin's long-term growth prospects remain strong. In the past decade, despite multiple setbacks, Bitcoin, as the largest cryptocurrency by market value, has shown a continuous upward trend.
Bitcoin has been rated as the best performing asset in asset investment this year by digital asset research firm Reflexity. Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones said that now is the best time to buy BTC.
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