What is the future of BTC? Professional netizens make predictions.1
What is the future of BTC? Professional netizens make predictions.
1. Withdrawal before halving BTC
At present, many people believe that Bitcoin may experience a deeper pullback in the future, and I do not deny this viewpoint. If there is a deep pullback in the market in the future, we estimate that it may occur within the next 140 days, which is before the first quarter of 2024, and the market may face another significant decline.
So, if this thing really happens, how much will Bitcoin fall at the lowest?
If we refer to historical data, for example, at the same time point in the past cycle (approximately 200 days before halving), BTC retreated -24% in 2015 and -38% in 2019. So, let's make a simple assumption and calculation based on the current price of Bitcoin. If the current price continues to decline by -30%, the price of Bitcoin may return to around $20000.
2. Rebound before halving BTC
That is to say, $20000 should be the lowest point that Bitcoin may reach in the future. As for many people who are still waiting for Bitcoin at the $15000 position, hoping to start bottoming again at that time, I can only say that everyone has their own opinions. It's entirely up to you. Moreover, if Bitcoin really plummets below 15000 due to some Black Swan incidents in the future, perhaps you will still stay on the sidelines and want to wait for positions below 10000, as human nature often does. As for our suggestion, it is still the same operational approach that has been mentioned multiple times in the previous article. Now, we will start to make fixed investments and use DCA to reduce your average buying cost. By the next bull market, you will have a stable and safe probability of gaining several times the return.
Okay, let's move on to the main topic. As mentioned above, when a deeper pullback occurs before the halving of BTC, approximately 60 days before the halving, according to historical experience, there is often a rebound before the halving. The rebound at this point is mainly hype about halving expectations, and various media often cooperate with some positive news to attract more funds (leeks) to pay attention.
3. Continuing pullback before halving BTC
After experiencing the hype of halving expectations mentioned above, it is likely that we will continue to make another retreat before the halving. And this retreat often occurs in the short period before and after the halving date, for example, the depth of retreat before the halving in 2016 was -38%, and the depth of retreat before the halving in 2020 was -20%.
The main purpose of the retreat before halving here should also be to make investors (especially those who entered the previous speculation stage) question and use this to wash away those unstable chips.
4. BTC enters the stage of re accumulation
After the retreat before halving, there may be a period of re accumulation that lasts for several months, with significant fluctuations and sideways movements during this stage. The main purpose of this stage is to hope that Bitcoin can continue to undergo a full turnover, and many investors may feel pessimistic due to boredom, impatience, and disappointment during this stage, as they originally entered the market with a bearish expectation of halving. If the market does not allow them to generate returns for many months, these people will also be washed out.
Continuously attracting investors to enter and washing away those unstable chips, which has been repeated for several months, is the necessary path for Big Bull to truly start.
5. BTC begins to show a parabolic upward trend
After the above four stages, once Bitcoin breaks through the re accumulation zone and undergoes sufficient preparation for a change of hands, then there will be a breakthrough parabolic upward trend.
It is also at this stage that Bitcoin will continue to accelerate its growth as it moves towards new historical highs. During this process, those old chives who have been stuck in the bear market for several years will have the opportunity to slowly sell the collected coins for profit, and then the new chives will start to enter the market on a large scale and take over the market. Of course, compared to the old chives who have been sticking to and hoarding coins for a long time, those giant whales and project parties/institutions are the groups that make the most profit in this game process.
Of course, the above is only our subjective judgment and does not mean that the future market will really follow this script. Because no one can accurately judge the market trend, we can only make some "guesses" based on historical data, historical experience, and factors such as the future economic situation. Moreover, how many black swan events may still exist in the future, who can say for sure! In short, regardless of the ups and downs of the market, one needs to maintain inner peace. As long as one makes their own investment plans, and before making any decisions, please be sure to do so.
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