Graphical data:1. In the past 5 years (2018-2022), the September market of Kezhou has been declining, with an average amplitude of over 20%2
Graphical data:
1. In the past 5 years (2018-2022), the September market of Kezhou has been declining, with an average amplitude of over 20%
2. From the perspective of halving BTC every four years:
In the four years from 2018 to 2020, the decline from September 2018 to September 2019 was a relay, followed by a deep correction. The decline from September 2020 to September 2021 was the final adjustment in the upward trend.
In the four years from 2021 to 2024, the decline in September 2022 was a downward relay, reaching its lowest point in 11-12 with a 15K rebound (the final decline was caused by FTX thunderstorms draining liquidity)
So if September in the second half of 2024 is a downward correction before a bull market rally, will the current decline in September 2023 also be a downward relay? After that, the Mavericks rebounded for 24 years?
What narratives are worth paying attention to in September?
Interest rate increase resolution
In September, the world's attention will continue to focus on the Federal Reserve, and market expectations for the Fed to continue raising interest rates in September have increased. According to CME's "Federal Reserve Observation" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged at 5.25% -5.50% in September is 84.5%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the 5.50% -5.75% range is 15.5%.
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Social, SocialFi
Social media is still the most popular sector among people. Recently, the hottest social media platform on Base, friend.tech, has attracted large-scale users with a transaction volume of over 30000 ETH on its own, with an unexpected level of popularity.
Friends who are interested in the social field can also easily notice the popularity of CyberConnect, LensProtocol, CharityDAO, Phaver, XMTP, as well as the influx of emerging hot topics such as Port3Network and Farcaster.
As a popular social charity organization, CharityDAO has successively carried out charity activities in 15 countries around the world, delivering humanitarian care, and developing the encrypted social charity fundraising service platform LetsHelp. Its global influence continues to expand. Next, its treasury opening hours and potential air traffic are the focus of community attention. In addition, the decentralized social protocol Farcaster has announced its migration to OPMainnet and plans to migrate Farcaster identity and storage contracts to OPMainnet in the coming weeks.
RWA
RWA has become a hot topic recently. Investors have invested more than 600 million dollars in token treasury bond and obtained an annualized yield of about 4.2%. Next, innovation and use cases related to RWA are expected to increase.
The full name of RWA is Real WorldAssets, which represents tangible and intangible assets in the physical world (such as real estate, bond commodities, etc.). The tokenization of RWA enables us to bring these off chain assets onto the blockchain, thus opening up a new field of possibilities regarding composability and potential use cases. The RWA market is in the early stages of development, but there are signs of growth, and TVL is also growing. At present, many institutions and communities such as Avae Community, Wave Field, MakerDAO, etc. have participated in or invested in RWAs to varying degrees.
Base Ecology
Base is an Ethereum second tier expansion plan incubated by Coinbase. In the fiercely competitive and explosive Layer2 track, Base has entered the public's view with a dazzling posture, with several core points such as technology, blockbusters, ecology, and incentives (expectations) all quite eye-catching.
Base is built on OPStack, a secure, low-cost, and developer friendly Ethereum L2 aimed at bringing the next billion users into web3. Base incubates within Coinbase and plans to gradually decentralize in the coming years. According to incomplete statistics, the number of Base ecological projects has exceeded 100, with a relatively complete scale. Infrastructure accounts for half of the country, including but not limited to bridges, On Ramp, wallets, oracle machines, node providers, etc. Other projects such as DeFi, NFT, social media, games, etc. have also performed well.
Thank you for reading. See you next time!
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