Bitcoin (BTC) has gone through another calm week, with a bearish outlook as it falls below the 30000 mark. However, the stalemate has not yet been broken, and we are wary of this week's series of heavyweight events leading to unexpected market conditions
Bitcoin (BTC) has gone through another calm week, with a bearish outlook as it falls below the 30000 mark. However, the stalemate has not yet been broken, and we are wary of this week's series of heavyweight events leading to unexpected market conditions.
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Bitcoin (BTC) trading sideways reflects the nature of weakness, focusing on the impact of heavyweight risk events such as Federal Reserve resolutions
The financial market environment over the past week has been mixed compared to the trend of Bitcoin (BTC), which may be the main reason for the narrow volatility of Bitcoin. The adverse change of Bitcoin occurred in the US dollar, because the U.S. Dollar Index rebounded and rose by more than 1%, recovering the nearly half decline of the previous week.
Last week's US economic data was not particularly positive for the US dollar, while retail sales, industrial output, and new home starts were negative for the US dollar. However, the performance of initial jobless claims was relatively positive. In short, there was a clear short covering trend in the US dollar before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week, which is theoretically unfavorable for Bitcoin prices.
However, risk appetite remained strong last week, which is an aspect that supports the trend of Bitcoin prices. As a Weather vane of the overall market risk appetite, the US stock market continued to climb to a new recent high, and the S&P 500 index still recorded an increase of 0.7% last week.
Recently, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has not been very popular with favorable macroeconomic conditions, such as the sharp drop in the US dollar and the sharp rise in US stocks last week. Despite the seemingly favorable situation, Bitcoin has shown weak performance. So, it is natural that Bitcoin's upward momentum was weak despite the interweaving of positive and negative sentiment last week, but this actually reflects a relatively weak trend in essence.
This week, there will be a series of heavyweight risk events, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate resolution and US PCE prices, which may have a significant impact on the US dollar and overall market risk appetite, guiding the direction of Bitcoin's trend. However, as mentioned earlier, the essence of Bitcoin's recent weakness may determine its sensitivity to bearish news, while being slightly numb to positive news.
Technical analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) trend: 30000 level has become resistance, pay attention to downside risks
The daily chart shows that Bitcoin (BTC) broke below the 30000 mark in the sideways market volatility. Although the decline did not rapidly expand after the break, it is worth noting that Bitcoin's rebound appears particularly weak. The 30000 mark has clearly become a key short-term resistance, so the outlook tends to be bearish under this integer resistance.
If it meets expectations, Bitcoin's downward targets will focus on levels such as 29000 and 28000. If it rebounds and goes up, we will focus on the resistance in the middle track 30300 area of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart. However, if it successfully breaks above 30300, the outlook will shift to further bullish.
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