ETH led the rise, and Ethereum's future depends on USDT to "rescue"?

Disclaimer: This article aims to convey more market information and does not constitute any investment advice. The article only represents the author's viewpoint and does not represent the official stance of Mars Finance.

Editor: Remember to follow me

Investing in blockchain, Punk: Mars Finance App Download

Source: Wind and fire wheels Community

Author: Pei Pei

In the previous article (ETH and EOS both have recent upward demand! (non investment advice), we analyzed the factors that may drive ETH to rise. After the article was published, Ethereum really supported and rose a bit. However, this has nothing to do with Pepe.

Recently, ETH has a positive stimulus:Payment processor BitPay announced that it will soon support Ethereum, which also means that Ethereum will begin to integrate more Cryptocurrency payment solutions. In addition, what we discussed the day before yesterday is:The issuance of USDT on Ethereum has led to an increase in on chain trading volume, thereby increasing the potential purchasing demand for ETHJust think about it, every USDT transaction requires ETH as a handling fee, even friends who do not hold ETH have to occasionally buy some in order to use it.

We didn't provide any data in the previous article. Today, we found some relevant data that we can take a look at together:

In recent months, on the Ethereum network, the proportion of transfer transactions on the USDT chain has grown rapidly, and now it has exceeded 25%:

That is to say, on average, out of every 4 transactions in the online data, at least one transaction is a USDT transfer. Let's take another picture:

What transactions are the user fees used for

Above imageThe bottom blue part is the tether partIt can be seen that this part has been growing almost since June. At the beginning of June this year, the proportion of USDT was less than 1%, until it rose to over 20% last week.

At present, the two main versions of USDT are the Omni version based on bits and the ERC20 version based on Ethernet,And now the number of transactions in ERC20 version usdt has exceeded that in omni version:

In terms of market share:

Currently, the USDT of the ERC20 version is almost 40% fasterHowever, Tether is still continuously shifting USDT from OMNI to Ethernet, so it can be expected that this gap will continue to narrow, and even the possibility of future ERC20 versions being "dominant" cannot be ruled out.

If this trend continues, to some extent, Ethereum may be widely used again through Tether after its financing function has burst with the cottage foam.

So, really, can the future of Ethereum be saved by USDT?

You should know that one of the factors that Ethereum has begun to emerge before the wave of Isio is that the bit policy is limited, and the liquidity has been transferred to Ethereum. You can see that there are many trading pairs in ETH in many exchanges.

Will it be repeated again? Here is my suspicion:

1. The growth of the ERC20 version of usdt is obviously faster than that of the Big Pancake Network and much cheaper, which indeed brings some buying demand to Ethereum. For example, children's shoes that usually transfer more money must be prepared,But this order of magnitude is much worse than in the Aisio era.

On the one hand, no one goes around transferring USDT all day long, right? My personal experience is that when I buy it, I put it in the corresponding exchange for later currency exchange, and I even prefer to use eos directly for inter exchange transfers,As for cross-border transfers, there is still a question mark indicating whether it is easy to exchange for fiat currency in other regions. It is also difficult to directly exchange for US dollars, especially in many overseas markets where USDT is not used.

On the other hand, based on the on chain data, the total transfer volume on September 16th was 730000:

20% is USDT, rounded to 150000 transaction volume. Based on current network conditions, if a transfer is completed within 2 minutes, the transaction fee is 0.1 US dollars, and only 15000 US dollars will be charged on that day. How much additional buying demand can this drive?

Even considering some who pay high handling fees, let's double it five times, and it's less than $100000 a day. And this handling fee is also circulating to miners, unlike to project parties, as financing may take time and can be saved for several months.

Is it possible for the erc20 version to be replaced by the eos version?

Yesterday, I also talked about some netizens who believe that with the arrival of the USDT version on eos, nothing has happened,But currently, the dominant position of the ERC20 version is likely to continue for a long time.

One is that Tether has been released on EOS, but it has not been operational. I don't know if I have any plans to do this or if I am waiting for something.

Looking at the block records of USDT, there are only a few USDT transactions in half a month, and it is still Bitlinex's own account being transferred.

The second advantage of eos is that it is fast and free, but for exchange withdrawals, many of them need to be reviewed. The difference between 1 second transfer and 5 minute transfer is not significant. As for free transfer, the exchange can do it. For example, bigone now offers free transfer, but it is suspected that they still want to charge.

However, there's no need to be too pessimistic about pomelo powderFirstly, this is something that needs to be promoted by the exchange. A single slap cannot make a sound, and a transfer must be accepted by both exchanges. Please see the picture above,The erc20 version has been out for over a year now and only recently became mainstream. I went to a small institution for a few months to transfer to Usdt, but they don't have the erc20 version, so take your time and don't rush.

In addition, the transfer advantage of pomelo may only be reflected when the Ethernet network is sufficiently congested. When the network is congested, it relies on bidding and paying high transaction fees, which is very uncomfortable and will force the exchange to do it.

epilogue

To paraphrase netizens,The relationship between USDT and ETH is like WeChat and China Mobile, it's just a pipeline. Who uses itSo,The future of Ethereum does not depend on USDT. Decentralization depends on a centralized currency, which is OK.

But don't be disappointed because the fundamentals are still goodComing soon, there will be an upgrade in October, and January next year will be the 0 phase of ETH2.0. At present, in addition to the USDT, the Stablecoin market is basically monopolized by Ethereum, and there are many space restrictions. There is also the defi (open finance) market:

A visualization from Alethio shows that from November 2018 to July this year, although we may not feel much about it, the data shows that the defi market has grown significantly,Therefore, we can still be optimistic about the future of Ethereum, but please do not just because of the small trend you have seen about usdt recently.