Bitcoin's Post-Trump Election Surge and Subsequent Correction: In-depth Analysis and Future Price PredictionSince November 6th, 2020, when Donald Trump was declared the winner of the US presidential election, Bitcoin (BTC) price experienced a sharp surge, breaking above its previous high of $73,700 and initiating a strong upward trend on the daily chart. From $70,000 on November 6th, it skyrocketed to $99,588 on November 22nd, nearing the $100,000 mark a nearly 40% increase
Bitcoin's Post-Trump Election Surge and Subsequent Correction: In-depth Analysis and Future Price Prediction
Since November 6th, 2020, when Donald Trump was declared the winner of the US presidential election, Bitcoin (BTC) price experienced a sharp surge, breaking above its previous high of $73,700 and initiating a strong upward trend on the daily chart. From $70,000 on November 6th, it skyrocketed to $99,588 on November 22nd, nearing the $100,000 mark a nearly 40% increase. However, just as the market anticipated a breakthrough to $100,000, a correction began near that level, with a drop of almost $6,000 in a few days, sparking market panic and raising concerns among investors about the end of the bull market and the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $100,000.
Let's review the specifics of this correction: The first drop began on November 22nd, falling from $99,588 to $95,900 on November 24th (a $3,688 decrease). A rebound followed, reaching $98,871 on November 25th (a $3,000 increase). A third drop then commenced, from $98,871 on November 25th to $94,525 (a $4,346 decrease). Theoretically, a fourth rebound should reach around $97,500, a level that warrants close attention as a potential resistance point.
Is $94,525 the bottom for Bitcoin? We believe it is unlikely. The key to the subsequent price movement lies in whether the $94,525 support level holds. A break below this level would necessitate monitoring the support around $90,000.
It's crucial to remember that bull markets often involve sharp corrections. Investors shouldn't assume a bear market has begun just because of a significant price drop. Maintaining composure during rapid price declines is vital. Bitcoin's rise from $70,000 to nearly $100,000, a gain of almost $30,000, saw virtually no substantial corrections. Even a $10,000 pullback would be considered normal.
For a more comprehensive analysis, let's examine the weekly and monthly charts (charts omitted; charts should be inserted here). From a long-term perspective, both Bitcoin's weekly and monthly charts display a clear upward trend. Notably, the monthly chart has just broken through a previous plateau, now forming three consecutive green candles (three consecutive positive monthly closes). According to the typical bull market cycle, at least six consecutive green candles are needed to confirm the continuation of the bull market, which could extend to around March of the following year. Naturally, there will be corrections and fluctuations during the upward trend. For long-term holders, accumulating at the bottom is relatively safe. However, market makers often conduct "shakeouts" to eliminate retail traders holding leveraged contracts.
So, what is the ultimate price target for Bitcoin in the long term? We believe that Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 by the end of the year is almost certain, potentially as early as next month. Reaching $110,000 within the year is also highly likely. For the following year, a price target of $150,000 is possible.
Therefore, the current correction is more likely a typical bull market correction than a signal of its end. The trend suggests Bitcoin needs a short-term correction, with $90,000 representing a crucial support level, which is expected to hold.
Bitcoin has now corrected for four days. Let's assume a seven-day correction cycle, implying the correction might conclude by the end of the month. The daily chart doesn't yet show signs of a substantial correction. However, investors should closely monitor daily price movements after mid-December.
Summary:
1. The current Bitcoin price action is a bull market correction, with a maximum potential drop of around $10,000, and $90,000 being a key support level.
2. Bitcoin's price will still challenge the $100,000 mark this year, and $100,000 is likely not the ultimate high.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make investment decisions based on their own risk tolerance. All investments carry risk; invest cautiously.
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