Five Key Indicators Suggest Bitcoin is Poised to Break All-Time HighsBitcoin is on track to reach new all-time highs by 2025, fueled by a confluence of positive technical and on-chain indicators, optimistic sentiment surrounding the upcoming U.S
Five Key Indicators Suggest Bitcoin is Poised to Break All-Time Highs
Bitcoin is on track to reach new all-time highs by 2025, fueled by a confluence of positive technical and on-chain indicators, optimistic sentiment surrounding the upcoming U.S. Presidential election, and a surge in capital flows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Trump Win Could Push Bitcoin to $100,000
Some market commentators have dubbed the recent surge in Bitcoin prices past $73,000 as the "Trump trade," as crypto enthusiasts are optimistic about a potential Trump victory. Trump, who consistently leads Vice President Kamala Harris in betting markets, has been actively courting the crypto industry and positioning himself as a crypto-friendly candidate.
Erik Finman, a Bitcoin millionaire who made his fortune as a teenager, believes that a Trump win would make the U.S. a crypto-supportive environment, leading to a flood of investment into the crypto market. "His policies will ignite the crypto market and propel tremendous growth across the board," Finman added. "If Trump wins, I believe Bitcoin could reach $100,000 during his second term."
IGAustraliaPty market analyst Tony Sycamore also sees Bitcoin's movement as a reflection of market optimism about Trump, emphasizing the importance of staying above $70,000 to solidify confidence in this rally and potentially surpass the March peak of $73,794. Bitcoin prices have gained nearly 15% in October, fueling market confidence in the "Uptober" trend.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Surge
Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract a significant influx of capital, with FarsideInvestors data showing that these investment products have attracted a total of $23.3 billion in funds since they began trading on January 11. Although Grayscale's GBTC continues to experience outflows, inflows into other ETFs, including BlackRock's IBIT, have offset the decline, with IBIT recording its largest single-day trading volume in six months, attracting $642.9 million in funds.
Bitcoin ETF demand has accelerated this week, with a total of $2.1 billion in inflows over the past five days. On October 30 alone, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted over $870 million. Crypto data provider Ecoinometrics noted in a post on X platform on October 29 that this is the strongest ETF inflow since March. "If youre looking for reasons why Bitcoin might go up, this is one of them," added the Ecoinometrics analyst.
Short-Term Holder SOPR Indicator Turns Bullish
Data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoins recent break above $70,000 has pushed over 94% of the supply into profit, but this has not triggered substantial profit-taking. The market intelligence firm's Short-Term Holder (STH) Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicator suggests that while short-term holders are back in profit, the market is not "overheated."
The SOPR is used to show whether short-term holders are making a profit or loss compared to when they first acquired Bitcoin. A SOPR value above 1 indicates that most coins in short-term investments are in profit, while a value below 1 indicates that most coins are in loss. CryptoQuant noted that the indicator currently stands at 1.017%, indicating that short-term holders are realizing some profits but have not yet reached overheated territory. The company explains that during the seven-month sideways trading period since March, a SOPR value of 1.03% was considered "overheated," meaning that Bitcoin has room to rise before reaching that level. "If Bitcoin prices break above recent highs and the STH SOPR continues to rise, we could see a full-fledged bull run."
Bitcoin Open Interest Hits All-Time High, Confirms Upward Trend
Data from CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) hit an all-time high on October 29, coinciding with Bitcoin's break above $73,000, its highest level since March. The data reveals that Bitcoin futures OI recorded the largest single-day increase since June 3, reaching over 20,000 BTC, approximately $2.5 billion at current prices, with total OI reaching nearly 600,000 BTC, representing about $41 billion.
Open interest refers to the total number of outstanding derivative contracts that have not yet been settled. High OI indicates significant investor interest in Bitcoin. When open interest increases along with Bitcoin prices, it suggests that new funds are entering the market with increased demand, signaling a strengthening trend. Julio Moreno, a contributor to CryptoQuant, pointed out in an October 29 post on X platform that Bitcoin could target $84,000 if demand continues to grow. "Bitcoin is approaching a new all-time high. From a valuation perspective, $84,000 would be the next target (i.e., the 'cap')."
Bitcoin Technicals Point to Breakout in Progress
Data from CointelegraphMarketsPro and TradingView show that Bitcoin prices rallied to within $200 of an all-time high after Wall Street opened on October 29, surging as much as 5.6% to $73,600 before correcting slightly to current levels. Notably, Bitcoin's price action has formed a rounded bottom pattern on the daily chart. During the October 29 rally, buyers pushed prices above the pattern's neckline at $71,700. If the daily candlestick closes above this level, it would confirm a bullish breakout from the rounded bottom formation, sending Bitcoin into a price discovery phase with a technical target set at $91,362, representing a 27% gain from current levels.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching overbought territory, currently at 67, reinforcing the dominance of bulls in the market but still below the "overbought" threshold of 70. Meanwhile, the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) have also formed a "golden cross" on the daily chart. This occurred in early January when the 50-day EMA (yellow line) crossed above the 200-day EMA (purple line) to the upside, followed by a 60% rally in BTC/USD.
In conclusion, multiple technical and on-chain indicators point to an impending breakout in Bitcoin prices towards new all-time highs. The potential for a Trump victory, the influx of capital into spot Bitcoin ETFs, and the bullish signal from the Short-Term Holder SOPR indicator all suggest that Bitcoin is on track to reach new all-time highs by 2025.
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