The "Script" for a Trump Victory: Gold Soars, Bitcoin Surges, But the Stock Market Plays with Hearts?Recently, the capital market has begun to bet on Trump's victory in the U.S
The "Script" for a Trump Victory: Gold Soars, Bitcoin Surges, But the Stock Market Plays with Hearts?
Recently, the capital market has begun to bet on Trump's victory in the U.S. election, going even further to predict that he will sweep the election and give Republicans control of both the House and Senate. The market fluctuations triggered by this expectation make one have to pay attention to the potential impact it could bring.
Gold Prices Surge
First, we saw a surge in gold prices. Back after the Trump shooting incident, I analyzed that if Trump won, it would be beneficial to gold prices and detrimental to oil prices. The reason is that Trump's policies tend towards protectionism and a strong dollar, which tend to push up the value of gold as a safe-haven asset.
Bitcoin's Frenzy
Joining gold on its upward trajectory is Bitcoin. Trump has explicitly stated his support for cryptocurrencies, undoubtedly filling the Bitcoin market with anticipation. Many tech giants have also publicly expressed their support for Trump, indicating their optimistic expectations for his policies.
Stock Market "Playing with Hearts", Contradiction Between Historical Patterns and Real-World Logic
The U.S. stock market has exhibited a "bizarre" posture. The last time Trump was elected, the U.S. stock market experienced a single-day plunge before subsequently rising steadily. However, this time, the market seems to have directly "skipped" the plunge scenario, assuming a straight upward trajectory for the stock market.
This phenomenon appears to contradict the traditional patterns of the U.S. stock market, where a sustained upward trend in stocks generally signifies the incumbent party's re-election. However, the current real-world logic points to a different possibility. Trump's approval ratings are slightly lower than his opponent Harris, but given the Democrats' control of the media, the accuracy of these polls is questionable.
Trump's Victory and Control of Both Houses: Ushering in a New Era?
If Trump ultimately wins and the Republicans control both the House and Senate, what impact will it have? This will undoubtedly usher in a completely new era.
As is well known, various U.S. policies need to be passed through voting in both houses. Due to the different parties typically controlling each house, many bills are unable to become policies. However, if the Republicans control both houses, many of Trump's policies will transition from words to reality.
For instance, Trump has claimed that he will immediately halt aid to Ukraine upon taking office. Should he win, he could potentially mend relations with Russia, thereby ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
On the other hand, the Democrats may lose their voice and even resort to unconventional means of resistance, further exacerbating the division within the United States and leading to irreconcilable contradictions.
Trump's Policies: Tax Increases, Trade Wars, and Isolationism
Trump's tax increase policies may have negative impacts, but we have already experienced them for several years, and the situation has not spiraled out of control.
As for the trade war, the result has been record-breaking Chinese import and export figures, with the trade war's effects waning. China can circumvent the negative impacts of the trade war by transhipping through Southeast Asia, Mexico, and other places. This move by Trump seems to have run its course, and people are experiencing fatigue.
Beyond these policies, Trump may prioritize internal U.S. issues and adopt an isolationist policy, reducing involvement in external affairs.
Conclusion: A Future Filled with Uncertainty
The impact of a Trump victory is riddled with uncertainty. The market holds vastly divergent expectations for his policies, which will directly influence market fluctuations. Regardless of the outcome, we should approach it rationally and prepare for all possible scenarios.
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