The Bitcoin Bull Run Is Only Halfway Through, The Next 12-18 Months Are Key2024 is already halfway through, and for the crypto market, it has undoubtedly been a good year. From the debut of the first Bitcoin ETF launched in January to the long-awaited fourth Bitcoin halving in April, and the newly approved Ethereum ETFs soon to begin trading, the crypto market is experiencing a surge
The Bitcoin Bull Run Is Only Halfway Through, The Next 12-18 Months Are Key
2024 is already halfway through, and for the crypto market, it has undoubtedly been a good year. From the debut of the first Bitcoin ETF launched in January to the long-awaited fourth Bitcoin halving in April, and the newly approved Ethereum ETFs soon to begin trading, the crypto market is experiencing a surge. Bitcoin and Ethereum have risen 52% and 48% respectively this year. Since the beginning of 2023, Bitcoin has soared by around 300%, while Ethereum has risen by around 200%. This is undoubtedly a thrilling race.
However, in the face of such strong gains, investors can't help but wonder: are we nearing the end of the bull market? The answer is no. My research indicates that we have only experienced about half of this bull market cycle.
Looking back at history, Bitcoin has followed a predictable pattern before and after each halving. The fourth Bitcoin halving that occurred on April 19th is a pre-programmed event that automatically reduces the new supply of Bitcoin by half. Each time it occurs, it drives a predictable upward cycle. Cryptocurrency prices tend to bottom out 12-18 months before the Bitcoin halving and then begin to rebound. They see a stronger rebound in the year following the halving.
Looking back, BTC rose 8,000% after the first halving, nearly 30x in the year following the second, and gained 6x after the most recent halving four years ago. Bitcoin's price bottomed out 17 months before the halving and has now jumped over 300% from its low. While BTC's gains have slowed somewhat since the last halving, there's no need to worry. We are in the window where the largest price gains typically happen.
Analyzing the crypto market from the perspective of Bitcoin halving, we are in the fourth or fifth innings of the bull run. When I look at Bitcoin's gains since bottoming out in late 2022, I come to the same conclusion. We can see that the current cycle (black line) mirrors the last two market cycles: everything that happens on the blockchain is transparent and public. On-chain analysis allows us to see the reality of the crypto market in real time. All the on-chain metrics I am observing tell the same story: The crypto bull market has 12-18 months left.
Although we are roughly halfway through the cycle in terms of time, studying past bull runs reveals that most of the profits are made in the latter half. About 80% of the profits are earned within the last 20% of the cycle. This won't be a straight line, remember: Crypto is the most volatile asset in the world, nothing else comes close.
Despite the inevitable volatility, we are still in the early stages, and the best is yet to come. Don't lose sight of the bigger picture, what are the best cryptocurrencies to invest in this part of the Bitcoin cycle? I've been saying it, I believe BTC will reach at least $150,000 in this cycle, roughly a 120% increase from where it sits now. I think ETH, the world's second-largest cryptocurrency, will perform even better. But my favorite way to play this crypto bull run is to invest in little-known, money-making crypto businesses.
In summary, although the cryptocurrency market has already achieved remarkable growth, we are still in the early stages of this bull run. The next 12-18 months will be key for significant returns. Seize the opportunity and make the most of it. I believe this cryptocurrency feast has only just begun.
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