Bitcoin in September: Last Dip or Rebound Prelude?Bitcoin continued its downward trend on Saturday, breaking below the descending channel line, sparking market concerns about further declines. The market expects Bitcoin to drop to around 57900 or 57500, but it is recommended to wait for the bottom formation to appear before considering buying
Bitcoin in September: Last Dip or Rebound Prelude?
Bitcoin continued its downward trend on Saturday, breaking below the descending channel line, sparking market concerns about further declines. The market expects Bitcoin to drop to around 57900 or 57500, but it is recommended to wait for the bottom formation to appear before considering buying. Currently, there are two contrasting predictions for market trends, with September becoming a pivotal month in determining the future direction.
Prediction 1: 805 Crash Anniversary, Bottoming at 49000
This prediction anticipates Bitcoin to consolidate around 60000 in late August and early September before dipping to 55000. Ultimately, it will bottom out near the lowest point of the 805 crash, around 49000, completing a double bottom. Subsequently, Bitcoin will then experience a strong rebound, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on September 19, positive unemployment data on September 6, and a decline in the CPI inflation index on September 11.
This prediction requires a positive outlook for US economic data, signifying a "having your cake and eating it too" scenario. However, this idealistic scenario presents some risks, as economic uncertainties persist in the US.
Prediction 2: 805 Crash Anniversary, Not Bottoming at 49000
This prediction believes Bitcoin will consolidate in early September before dipping below 55000 and continuing to plummet, breaking below 50000 and 49000, potentially reaching 42000-43000, or even lower. This prediction is based on the last strategy of the "half-god, half-wood" Xia before withdrawing from the market in June, and Tony Mage's recent large-scale U-coin collection and early investment actions.
This prediction argues that the 805 crash was not a true "black swan" event but rather a "drill." If a genuine "black swan" emerges, Bitcoin could fall more sharply, experiencing a complete deleveraging similar to 312 and 519. For the past 23 and 24 years, the market has consistently seen 2-3x low-leverage dead long contract play. However, Bitcoin has barely witnessed a -30% or greater decline within the past year and a half, from 20000-73000. This low-leverage contract play has consistently yielded lucrative returns. However, if it dips to 40,000, this play will be completely destroyed. Currently, a substantial amount of 2-3x contract holdings remain in the market, akin to a "dammed lake." Once the support breaks, it will trigger a severe decline.
Key Data Points for Both Predictions:
- September 19: Federal Reserve interest rate cut
- September 6: Unemployment rate
- September 11: CPI inflation index
September Operation Advice:
Currently, the market cannot definitively determine which prediction will come true. Therefore, it is recommended to adopt a cash position or short strategy before September 20, awaiting clearer data before making investment decisions.
Outlook for October:
Regardless of September's trajectory, October is projected to be a significant bullish month. Consequently, it is advisable to seek suitable bottom-buying opportunities in mid to late September based on market conditions.
Summary:
September marks a critical juncture for Bitcoin, with the market responding to US economic data and interest rate cut outcomes. Whether it is the final dip or the prelude to a rebound, the answer will be revealed in September. Investors need to closely monitor market developments, exercise caution, and be prepared for various scenarios.
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