Bitcoin analysts are preparing to break through the $30000 mark, but what will the price trend of BTC provide in the next few days?Bitcoin investors have stated that the second week of June begins in familiar areas, but breakthroughs are imminent.After a calm weekly closing, BTC/USD remained firmly within the established trading range, while behind the scenes, market participants were preparing for some dramatic changes
Bitcoin analysts are preparing to break through the $30000 mark, but what will the price trend of BTC provide in the next few days?
Bitcoin investors have stated that the second week of June begins in familiar areas, but breakthroughs are imminent.
After a calm weekly closing, BTC/USD remained firmly within the established trading range, while behind the scenes, market participants were preparing for some dramatic changes.
This has been waiting for a long time, and for experienced traders, there are increasing signs that volatility is making a comeback.
There have been almost no macroeconomic triggers this week, which has shifted people's attention to other places in search of clues about what the BTC price action may do in the short term.
On chain analysis provides other interesting insights, reinforcing the current view that the only 'boring' part of Bitcoin is spot prices.
As BTC/USD hovers around $27000 for another week, Cointelgraph examines the key factors that are playing a role.
Trader Skew marked 104.7% (the current June high) as a key level above the close to form a bullish DXY trend.
In the early trading session of the European Union, it closed strong and rose, "he commented on the same day.
If the US dollar closes above $104.7, I think it's a strengthening of the US dollar. So far, this seems risk-free, but we will see it later
Meanwhile, over the weekend, TraderSZ described DXY as "bullish until it proves otherwise".
Stock supported bullish cryptocurrency case
The debt ceiling resolution had a direct venting effect on the stock market, but the cryptocurrency market generally failed to replicate their enthusiasm.
Market participants believe that this situation may still change as the S&P 500 index reaches a ten month high.
The US House of Representatives has passed a key debt ceiling agreement, pushing the # SP500 to its highest price since August. Counterfeit currencies such as $LTC, $LEO, and $FGC have risen today, "research firm Santiment wrote on June 2nd.
Due to cryptocurrencies lagging behind stocks, there will soon be some catching up time for $BTC
The accompanying chart also tracks the "rebound" of gold, although it is so brief, the pullback setting marks a new week.
At that time, as reported by Cointelgraph, others were also paying attention to the positive correlation between Bitcoin and the recovering S&P 500 index.
Bitcoin holders make easy profits
Popular technical analyst CryptoCon wrote in the survey results last month: "It's easy to 'feel' that the rise of Bitcoin has come to an end, but the facts indicate that it's not over
At that time, BTC/USD was nearly $1000 higher than the current level, but there was also a lack of enthusiasm.
CryptoCon uses the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric created by entrepreneurs and analysts Tuur Demeester et al. in 2019 to analyze the profitability of Bitcoin holders.
In the past few months, NUPL has almost always maintained a level of around 0.25- indicating that overall, BTC supply is moderately 'profitable'.
NUPL measures the difference between unrealized profits and unrealized losses, both of which are calculated by collecting unused transaction output (UTXO) to see how much token value there is compared to the last time it was moved on the chain.
Any value above zero indicates that the network is in a net profit state, while a value below zero indicates a net loss state. Generally speaking, the farther NUPL is from zero, the closer the market trend is to the top and bottom, "explained analyst firm Glassnode in the introduction.
CryptoCon now states that although it has been calm in recent months, NUPL has conducted upward trend retesting, which gives people confidence.
31k is not the end point, I hope you are ready! "He concluded in this weekend's update.
The accompanying chart of NUPL shows the relationship between its behavior and investor sentiment at various stages over the past decade.
The largest Bitcoin whale is at the center of the 'dichotomy'
On the topic of investor sentiment, different categories of holders currently have significant differences in their views on the market.
As Glassnode itself pointed out, most people still have a clear risk aversion compared to the special currency - although there have been no surrender incidents since May, selling has dominated.
One exception seems to be the largest category of Bitcoin 'whales'.
Glassnode uploaded an increase and allocation chart adjusted by queue, showing that the wallet holding at least 10000 BTC is increasing their position, while others are reducing risk exposure.
The researchers commented, "As the largest whale (> 10KBTC) continues to actively increase its holdings, while all other major groups have experienced significant allocation, an interesting dichotomy of Bitcoin's increase trend score still exists
The last overweight phase of these "giant whales" was at the end of 2022, and BTC/USD began its rebound in 2023 a few weeks later.
Then, the whale paused in mid January and entered its own allocation phase, before returning to the gathering phase in May.
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