Bitcoin Short-Term Bullish and Bearish Battle: High Leverage Players Need to Be Cautious, Buying Opportunity Below 56,000?Last night, before the US stock market opened, Bitcoin fluctuated by more than its full-day range in just a few minutes. High-leverage players may have felt this impact particularly
Bitcoin Short-Term Bullish and Bearish Battle: High Leverage Players Need to Be Cautious, Buying Opportunity Below 56,000?
Last night, before the US stock market opened, Bitcoin fluctuated by more than its full-day range in just a few minutes. High-leverage players may have felt this impact particularly. They were profitable just minutes ago, and suddenly found themselves in losses, facing the dilemma of cutting losses or holding on to the point of liquidation. This is a huge test of their composure. In the current BTC market with low liquidity, only spot trading can confidently handle price fluctuations. For leveraged trading, it is recommended to keep leverage below 3x.
For those who bought the dip near 56,200 yesterday, the price has now surpassed 59,200, with profits exceeding 3,000 points, and spot returns exceeding 5%. If you're worried about profit retracement, you can secure your principal and keep the profit while continuing to hold. Weekend trading is typically sluggish. Bold investors can choose to hold on for more profits.
Back to today's market analysis: From the perspective of the K-line chart, the 1-hour and 4-hour charts currently show an upward trend, while the 12-hour chart is about to enter an upward phase (as long as it doesn't break below $58,200 before 12 pm). The daily chart shows a downward trend, but if tomorrow closes with a positive candle, the daily chart will also re-enter an upward trend. Only by breaking out of the downward structure will the market truly turn bullish.
In the short term, there are opportunities for both bulls and bears, but the risk of buying the dip is slightly higher, especially on days with sharp price swings. This is because when the daily chart is in a downward trend, rebounds typically occur within the 30-minute to 12-hour timeframe. The daily chart resistance acts like a ceiling, suppressing the height of the rebound, creating a predetermined ceiling. Therefore, the short-term strategy recently has been primarily short selling with a focus on high entry points, complemented by buying the dip. It's recommended to only execute 1-2 trades at each high short and low long entry point.
Next week, from Monday to Friday, there will be a multitude of news events, and volatility is expected to be extremely frequent, with sharp price swings potentially occurring every day. Therefore, both bulls and bears should be aware of the risks when engaging in short-term trading. Avoid being liquidated or stopped out due to short-term fluctuations of a few hundred points or a thousand or two. It's recommended to only place orders at appropriate levels and let time handle the rest. 56,000 has been touched this week, and I've placed orders below 56,000 to wait for a buying opportunity. It's recommended to use different accounts for medium-term (seeking profit margins exceeding 10,000 points) and short-term (trading within 12-24 hours) transactions.
The likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $76,000 in September is very low. Based on the current K-line chart, it's almost impossible to rise directly to $76,000 without a new low below $49,000. The monthly chart shows a stepped decline structure, making it difficult to break through the March high of $73,000. This logic is like the fact that we cannot move forward on a path in reverse. The March high of $73,800 is the current upper limit of the monthly trend, while the support level below is $43,000. Without testing the $43,000 support, the chances of a direct rise to above $70,000 are small, and even $66,000 is difficult to achieve. Those who simply believe that interest rate cuts in September will trigger a significant surge are often overly optimistic. At least for now, the 1-day MACD has not yet broken through the zero axis, clearly not supporting the expectation of a significant surge.
When most people are expecting interest rate cuts to trigger a surge, will this surge actually happen? In reality, this surge is conditional - it often requires a sharp drop before it can be realized. Institutions and major players are closely watching this time point, and their short-term actions could easily disrupt market expectations. August ended with a negative candle, and September may see a positive candle. We need to first navigate through August, which is dominated by bears, before discussing the future direction of the market.
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