Bitcoin Breaks $61,000, Is the Bull Run Halfway Over?Bitcoin continued to surge after the release of the PPI data last night, breaking through the $60,000 mark and reaching a high of $61,575, up 1.81% in the past 24 hours
Bitcoin Breaks $61,000, Is the Bull Run Halfway Over?
Bitcoin continued to surge after the release of the PPI data last night, breaking through the $60,000 mark and reaching a high of $61,575, up 1.81% in the past 24 hours. The price has since pulled back slightly, currently trading at $60,766, consolidating within a narrow range. Analysts believe that after Bitcoin broke through the $60,680 trading dense area, it has the potential to rise further. However, investors need to be cautious as the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July tonight could bring about new market fluctuations.
Ethereum's overall trend mirrors Bitcoin's, but it failed to break through the previous high of $2,750, consolidating in a narrow range around $2,700. As of press time, it is trading at $2,708, down 0.17% in the past 24 hours. Whether it can continue to rise remains to be seen.
During the Bitcoin rally, Coinglass data shows that over $87.47 million was liquidated across the cryptocurrency market in the past 24 hours, with over 31,000 accounts liquidated. However, this is not a particularly large figure, indicating that the current price may not have reached the stop-loss points for bulls and bears, or that the number of leveraged positions has decreased.
If you believe that Bitcoin is still in a bull market, then we are already 640 days into the bull run. Bitcoin's performance this year has mirrored the previous two bull market cycles, with a return slightly less than 4.5 times. Between 2015 and 2018, Bitcoin experienced rapid growth, particularly from January to July 2017, surging from $800 to over $2,800 and reaching an all-time high of nearly $20,000 by year-end. Compared to different bull market periods, Bitcoin's current performance more closely resembles the 2018-2022 cycle, with a current return of 278%.
However, not all cryptocurrencies are as bullish as Bitcoin. The Ethereum (ETH) to Bitcoin ratio has dropped by almost half since the end of 2021, while Solana's market cap has grown from 4% to 22% relative to Ethereum, indicating a potential opportunity to outperform.
But how much longer can this bull run last? We can only refer to the duration of previous bull markets, with different models providing different timeframes. The simplest method is to consider the Bitcoin bottom as the start of the bull market and the market downtrend confirmation as the end. According to this method, the current bull market began on November 9, 2022, when Bitcoin fell below $15,670 due to FTX's suspension of withdrawals, lasting 642 days so far. The previous three bull markets lasted 1047 days (2015-2018) and 1278 days (2018-2022).
If Bitcoin continues to follow the four-year cycle (although there is no guarantee), we are halfway through our current cycle. If the bull market has already ended, it would be the shortest bull market in Bitcoin's history. However, if the bull market continues, Bitcoin prices should continue to rise before mid next year, aligning with the pattern of the previous three bull markets, which aligns with some analysts' predictions.
We're currently in a bull market, with a constantly evolving landscape. We share new insights with you every day.
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