Bitcoin at $70,000: The Three-Year Box Ends, A New Journey Begins!

Bitcoin at $70,000: The Three-Year Box Ends, A New Journey Begins!At the end of 2023, Bitcoin (BTC), after crawling along the 30-day moving average for 5 days and pulling the 7-day moving average back to the 30-day moving average, suddenly gained momentum, leaping upward and quickly breaking free from the "ground" of the 30-day moving average at $65,000. It decisively breached the "wall" of $70,000

Bitcoin at $70,000: The Three-Year Box Ends, A New Journey Begins!

At the end of 2023, Bitcoin (BTC), after crawling along the 30-day moving average for 5 days and pulling the 7-day moving average back to the 30-day moving average, suddenly gained momentum, leaping upward and quickly breaking free from the "ground" of the 30-day moving average at $65,000. It decisively breached the "wall" of $70,000.

"This correction has reached its end," stated a 3 25th article from JiaoChain Insights, "The Essence of AI and Nvidia's Dilemma," citing analysts' views and supporting the claim with "no foundation for a long-term decline." This assertion was actually first presented by JiaoChain in its article on March 16th, "BTC May Not Have a Basis for Long-Term Decline at This Stage," when BTC had just fallen below $70,000.

Looking back, JiaoChain's analytical methodology remains consistent: Formulating hypotheses based on rational cognition and intuitive market sentiment, then testing these hypotheses against facts, putting into practice Karl Popper's principle of scientific truth verification through falsification, using "falsifiability" as the criterion for judgment.

Back in December 18th, 2021, when BTC was at $46,000, JiaoChain boldly hypothesized the "Big Midfield Theory" in its article "The Bull Market is Still in the Midfield": BTC was building a large cross-cycle box with $30,000 as the lower boundary and $60,000 as the upper boundary. This theory underpinned the concept of a "midfield." Hence, $45,000 was the central fluctuation point of this large box in the medium term.

Looking back at the bull market of 2021, it truly was a box preparation. Although the estimate for the lower boundary of the box was slightly higher, it eventually fell back to $16,000, but this had a minimal impact on the estimate of the fluctuation center: The actual center of the box is ($70 + 16)/2 = $43,000, or $43,000. (Please note that the visual spacing of every $10,000 on a logarithmic coordinate system is not the same, so don't rely on the visual midpoint).

Since this was already known, the only thing to do when BTC fell below the center was to buy on the dips.

Now, BTC is testing the resistance level and reverse support level at the upper boundary of the box. Once support is confirmed, it will completely break the box, signaling the end of the three-year box phase and the beginning of a new journey!

Reviewing History: The Significance of $70,000

For those (retail investors) who experienced the $60,000 in 2021, $70,000 signifies a fantastic opportunity for "recouping losses and taking profits"!

For more seasoned who are still sidelined or holding half positions (referring to those who have experienced one or two halvings), many are still waiting for a massive drop before the next halving, similar to the "312" sharp retracement in 2020. (See JiaoChain's article from March 12th, 2024, "Another 312 Year").

Driven by this psychology, there will be a final round of handoffs at this point, with those getting off the vehicle and those getting on bidding each other farewell.

Who are the tour guides leading the group onto the vehicle? The spot ETFs: BlackRock, Fidelity, Ark Invest, Bitwise, ... (See JiaoChain's article from February 11th, 2024, "US Bitcoin ETF Holdings Cross the 200,000 BTC Threshold, Becoming Wall Street's Most Popular ETF Ever!).

What's most important for the tour guide in a bustling tour group? Ensuring there are always people and funds flowing in the tour group. As the saying goes, "The tour group remains, but the tourists come and go." Just like tour guides earn their commission, BlackRock earns its management fees. Whether it's rising or falling, as long as there are clients and the ETF scale remains, BlackRock can make money passively.

A simple calculation shows that if BlackRock manages a $500,000 BTC ETF, at $200,000, it generates $250 million in stable management fees annually. Therefore, BlackRocks will definitely pull out all the stops, desperately attracting customers to expand their asset management scale, and doing everything they can to retain clients, preventing them from selling too early. They hope clients will hold for the long term, for several years or even a decade, the longer the better, so they can keep enjoying management fees indefinitely. (Of course, as an open-ended fund, it cannot force clients to lock in, so it can only exert influence or develop derivative products based on the ETF to lock in client funds.)

On what vehicle are the ETFs? The $50,000 to $70,000 range. For them, $70,000 is just the start of the journey. For them, the exciting and exhilarating adventure in the crypto world has just begun.

Technical Analysis: Breaking the Box, Opening a New Chapter

Technically, the trajectory of BTC shares similarities in speculative pattern with Nvidia's stock chart.

On the left is BTC, and the red arrow points to the current stage. On the right is Nvidia's stock chart, where the red arrow represents a retracement and test of support after breaking through the stage, followed by a confirmation of support and a subsequent surge.

This is very similar to the SOS signal (Signal of Strength) in the Wyckoff Bottom Accumulation Model, which confirms the end of the right-side D phase. For those unfamiliar with the Wyckoff Bottom Accumulation Model, you can review JiaoChain's article from August 12th, 2021, "Cost Averaging Down in the Summer Market."

This point is precisely the final destination for many retail investors who exit and never get back on board!

We remember JiaoChain's summary of the "'s Three Treasures" in "Small Thoughts" (article from June 30th, 2021): Buying at the top; selling at the bottom; recouping losses and taking profits.

$70,000 is a golden opportunity for those who stood guard at $60,000 in 2021 to "recoup losses and take profits"!

For more seasoned who are still sidelined or holding half positions, they are still waiting for a massive drop before the next halving, similar to the "312" sharp retracement in 2020.

JiaoChain believes that BTC breaking through $70,000 marks the beginning of a new journey. In the long term, BTC's future is full of hope, it will continue to lead the innovation and development of digital assets, creating more value for humanity.

Here are some predictions and insights:

• BTC breaking through $70,000 signifies the end of the three-year box phase and the beginning of a new journey.

• Spot ETFs coming in provide strong financial support for BTC and drive the market to continue rising.

• Technical charts show that BTC has broken through the upper limit of the box and confirmed support, and is expected to continue breaking through upwards.

• In the short term, BTC may see a pullback, but in the long term, the trend remains bullish.

In the future, JiaoChain will continue to monitor the trajectory of BTC and provide readers with the latest analysis and recommendations.

Remember: Investing involves risk, and you should proceed with caution.

Here are some hot topics related to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies that you can continue to explore:

• Bitcoin Halving: Bitcoin halving is a crucial mechanism in the Bitcoin network that occurs every four years, halving the new block reward, which will influence Bitcoin's price trajectory.

• Blockchain Technology: Blockchain technology is the foundation of Bitcoin, not only applied to cryptocurrencies but also being applied to other fields such as supply chain management, healthcare, and financial services.

• DeFi (Decentralized Finance): DeFi is a decentralized financial system built on blockchain technology that can provide services similar to traditional finance, such as lending, trading, and insurance, but more open and transparent.

• NFT (Non-Fungible Token): NFTs are unique digital assets that can represent anything, such as artwork, music, game items, etc. NFTs are becoming an important platform for digital collectibles and artwork.

• Metaverse: The metaverse is a virtual world built with virtual and augmented reality technology, changing how people socialize, shop, and entertain themselves.

Remember, investments involve risk, and you should proceed