The price of Bitcoin has returned to $36000, but due to bearish deviations in the past three weeks, Bitcoin prices may further decline.Over the past 30 days, investors have sent over 34000 Bitcoins worth over $1
- The price of Bitcoin has returned to $36000, but due to bearish deviations in the past three weeks, Bitcoin prices may further decline.
- Over the past 30 days, investors have sent over 34000 Bitcoins worth over $1.12 billion to the exchange.
- Analysts say there is less than a 50% chance that spot Bitcoin ETFs will be approved during the window period before November 17th.
Bitcoin prices have confirmed a bearish divergence after recent declines. The result of this deviation will be that Bitcoin (BTC) may decline before resuming a macro upward trend.
However, investors seem overly eager to make profits, as evidenced by the influx of Bitcoin into exchanges. Given that the application for spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) may take some time before being approved, they may need to wait longer.
Approval of spot Bitcoin ETF will be postponed
At present, spot BTCETF applications are the biggest catalyst for Bitcoin prices, but it seems that they may not be approved at this window. This window period extends from November 8th to November 17th, marking the deadline for the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to make a decision on ETF applications.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyfart stated that the likelihood of obtaining approval this week is less than 50%, greater than zero. However, he still insists that the probability of obtaining approval for the application by January 10, 2024 is 90%.
The SEC has postponed its decision before the next deadline (November 17th), which means regulators must rule on 12 applications before January, and this is the next major period when Bitcoin prices may rise.
Just as Hashdex submitted an application in September to convert its existing Bitcoin futures ETF into a spot ETF, the application has been officially postponed by the SEC. As of the time of writing this article, regulatory agencies have updated the delay time on their website, and the SEC's deadline is now January 1, 2024, marking the end of the maximum 90 day period for making decisions on applications.
Bitcoin prices will experience some decline
On Wednesday, Bitcoin prices rebounded to $36000, with a trading price of $36050 as of the time of writing. In the past four days, BTC has fallen by approximately 4.7% after failing to break through the $38000 mark. The rise of the past three weeks marks a bearish divergence, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) forms a lower high while Bitcoin prices record higher highs.
The bearish deviation indicates that the market is bullish, but the momentum is slowing down, which often leads to a price drop. The recent decline has taken note of this, but Bitcoin prices may further decline before starting to rebound to $38000.
If BTC successfully rebounds from the key support level of $33901, this will achieve this goal, which will drive cryptocurrencies to break through the $36833 level, thereby invalidating the bearish divergence.
However, if the price of Bitcoin falls below this support level, the bullish sentiment will be invalidated, pushing the price of Bitcoin to reach $31507 or lower.
Bitcoin investors may delay selling
Bitcoin investors have been looking forward to good news this week regarding the approval of the spot BTCETF. Consistent with this optimistic sentiment, Bitcoin holders are prepared to sell their assets immediately after the price rises. The inflow of 34000BTC worth over $1.12 billion into the exchange proves this.
The inflow of funds indicates that the sentiment of selling to gain profits or offset losses is likely to arise, and considering the recent rebound, in the case of BTC, it may be the former.
However, as the likelihood of ETF approval this week is less than 50%, these investors may not sell their BTCs. If the price of Bitcoin rebounds from $33901 and climbs, some of these 34000BTCs may be sold off, but a larger portion of profit bookings may occur in January after the decision on 12 applications is made.
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