In the previous dehydration perspective, we believe that the current market development logic is driven by events. So far, the speculation about ETF events has not stopped
In the previous dehydration perspective, we believe that the current market development logic is driven by events. So far, the speculation about ETF events has not stopped.
For three reasons, we believe that the rise of Bitcoin will continue this week. Firstly, the signs of off market funds entering the market are very obvious. Secondly, the next deadline for ETF approval is November 17th, and the next deadline is January next year. It can be confirmed that there is no reason for a pullback before November 17th. Thirdly, the external macro environment lacks the possibility of deterioration.
Therefore, this week's rotation of Bitcoin and the counterfeit currency we pointed out last week will continue to rise. Technically speaking, Bitcoin's short-term support level is at 36800.
01 Industry and Macro
Last week, the most significant news in the industry was that Nasdaq submitted BlackRock's proposed ETH spot ETF application to the SEC. Affected by this, the ETH, which has been consistently low against Bitcoin, surged by over 10%, breaking through the 2000 level. Another important event is the detailed communication between the SEC and Grayscale regarding the conversion of GBTC into spot ETFs. These two events are the continued fermentation of ETF events, which have significantly stimulated the market.
The third thing is that the SEC has also stated that restarting FTX within the legal framework is possible. This also indicates the positive attitude of regulatory agencies towards the big trouble of FTX.
This week, even if there are no new related news. There are still expectations that the ETF will be approved on November 17th, although it may not have a large audience. At least until the disclosure on the 17th, expectations are possible and reasonable.
On a macro level, last week's decline in the Michigan Consumer Index in the United States continued to favor the logic of not raising interest rates, which states that 'bad news is good news'. In the market, there are analyses suggesting the risk of bad debts in commercial real estate loans and the liquidity risk caused by the decline in the US reverse repurchase fund pool. But even if these two risks erupt, they will take time to brew. Moreover, the Federal Reserve has paid great attention to liquidity risk because of the rise in the yield of treasury bond bonds. The possibility of an outbreak in the short term is extremely low.
02 On chain data
Glassnode data shows that with the rise in Bitcoin prices, the cost on the Bitcoin chain has rapidly skyrocketed, indicating a significant increase in the activity of the Bitcoin network.
According to Dune's data, the BRC-20 token has shown strong performance recently. Overall, with the rise in Bitcoin prices, Meme tokens have once again shown activity, which has driven a surge in Bitcoin chain activity.
According to data from intotheblock, there has been a certain outflow of stable currency, which may indicate that there are signs of capital flight, and Bitcoin's upward pressure has increased; At the same time, the correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks has rebounded once again.
03 Technical Analysis
The recent optimistic market expectations have been driving up BTC prices. From a general perspective, as long as there is no negative news related to ETFs, the market will continue its upward trend before January next year. In the short term, the current price is in a fluctuating box after being pulled up, and below 36800 can become a reference point for short-term long buying.
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