Move forward on Tiger Mountain, push aside the clouds and see the light!After suspending interest rate hikes in September, the Federal Reserve announced at 2am today that it will continue to keep the federal benchmark interest rate unchanged between 5.25% and 5
Move forward on Tiger Mountain, push aside the clouds and see the light!
After suspending interest rate hikes in September, the Federal Reserve announced at 2am today that it will continue to keep the federal benchmark interest rate unchanged between 5.25% and 5.50%, in line with previous market expectations.
Meanwhile, BTC has reached a new high for the year!
Next, Guage will take you to review the important content of the early morning meeting together.
The possibility of interest rate hikes is not ruled out in December
The Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Bauer, revealed at a press conference after the meeting that it is still unknown whether there will be an interest rate hike in December:
Even if the Federal Reserve decides to suspend interest rate hikes for the third time in December, it does not mean that there will be no further interest rate hikes in the future
He still emphasizes that over time, the goal is to restore inflation to 2%.
No interest rate reduction considered!
As for the market's prediction that interest rate cuts will begin in 2024, Bauer also poured cold water on the statement that the US central bank has not yet started considering interest rate cuts until inflation is under control.
The committee has not considered lowering interest rates at all now.
We are still very concerned about whether we have implemented sufficient restrictive monetary policies to sustainably reduce the inflation rate to 2% over time.
Pay attention to the rise in long-term bond yields and geopolitical crises
In addition, in the face of the 10-year US Treasury bond yield rising above 5% in October to a 16 year historical high, the Federal Reserve statement hinted that the rise in US Treasury bond yields may cause pressure on the economy and inflation.
David Lebovitz, global market strategist at JPMorgan Chase, had previously predicted:
If the yield rate continues to rise in its usual upward trend, there will eventually be a financial accident and a collapse, which will lead the Federal Reserve to move in another direction (interest rate cuts).
As for the continued spread of the Israeli Hamas War, Bauer pointed out that the Fed is tracking the economic impact of geopolitical factors, but stated that oil prices have not yet significantly increased and it is uncertain whether they will cause a serious blow to the global economy.
The four major US stock indices rose together
As expected, maintaining interest rates unchanged, the market expects that the Federal Reserve may have completed the interest rate hike cycle, and the four major US stock indices have opened higher:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 221.71 points (0.67%) to close at 33274.58 points
- The S&P 500 index rose 44.06 points (1.05%) to close at 4237.86 points
- The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 210.23 points (1.64%) to close at 13061.47 points
- The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 75.06 points (2.33%) to close at 3290.95 points
Bitcoin and Ethereum Rise
In terms of the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has reacted in sync with the US stock market. After the news of no interest rate hike was confirmed, BTC steadily rose and quickly rose after the close of the day, reaching a peak of $35989 around 10:45 this morning, with a 2.55% increase in the past 24 hours
Ethereum also saw a decent increase, reaching a high of $1874 earlier and currently trading at $1860, up 0.98% in the past 24 hours.
Technical indicators suggest a bullish advantage
Kitco Senior Technical Analyst Jim Wyckoff pointed out that "November Bitcoin futures prices slightly weakened in early US trading on Wednesday.
The recent price trend has formed a bullish triangular flag pattern on the daily chart.
However, this week's prices need to see a bullish upward breakthrough, otherwise the bullish triangle flag will be rejected. With the emergence of price upward trends on the daily chart, Bitcoin bulls still have a solid short-term technical advantage.
MNTrading analyst Gunter Lackmann stated in his daily analysis that the Bitcoin daily chart shows its prices "in bullish consolidation, similar to an upward triangle chart pattern, as 8EMA (8-day index moving average) is rising.
At present, the situation where this mode fails is that the daily candle closing price is below $34000, but we should also be prepared to retest 8EMA during the session. The last test was on October 23rd, with upward resistance around $34800.
He stated that "most conservative traders will wait until the rally (usually divided into two to three stages of rally) is completed" to re-enter the market. My potential upward targets are $36000-38000 and $40000-42000.
When the market is excited about more gains, it will be more likely to retest the previous high point of the HTF range of around $31500
Market analyst RektCapital reminds investors that for traders waiting for a significant pullback in Bitcoin to build positions, there are only 100 days left before such an opportunity arises.
RektCapital posted on the X platform stating: "Historical data suggests that Bitcoin may only have 100 days left to complete further pullbacks, which will provide one of the last bargain hunting opportunities before halving.
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