Preface: Investment carries risks and caution should be exercised everywhere. This content is not intended as a recommendation and is for reference only
Preface: Investment carries risks and caution should be exercised everywhere. This content is not intended as a recommendation and is for reference only.
News flash:
1. 2:00 am on November 2nd - Federal Reserve interest rate meeting
Firstly, the time of this meeting is 2:00 am on November 2nd, and the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. It will be 2:30 am on November 2nd. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is scheduled to hold a policy press conference. Before the release of the Federal Reserve meeting, which was just a few hours before the meeting, it was 8:30 pm Beijing time on Wednesday evening.
Pay attention, the US Treasury Department has announced its bond issuance plan for the next three months, and institutions have commented that the Treasury Department will have to raise funds for various maturities again on November 1st and next February. Next, let's take a look at the relationship between the two and what are the highlights of this market.
The first highlight is that the probability of the Federal Reserve not raising interest rates this time is relatively high.
The second key point is how long will high interest rates be delayed? The probability that the United States will announce the meeting futures with or without interest rate hikes in the early hours of November 2nd Beijing time in November is 100%.
The market is still divided on whether to raise interest rates in December. The probability of interest rate futures including or without interest rate hikes is 80%. But the end of this interest rate hike cycle is basically a consensus in the market. The current state is that interest rates remain high, especially as we have seen from July 2023 onwards, the market has remained moderate at around 25 points, including maintaining high levels.
The second point is that we need to take a look at the current status and see a point on the first page, which is about bond issuance. What is the driving force behind the current high interest rates? The first is the resilience of growth, which is a reflection of the institution. The second is the supply of debt. Instead of changes in the path of inflation and interest rate hikes. This is also why we are currently maintaining the state of 525-555 on November 1, 2023 due to growth resilience and an increase in bond supply.
BTC Market Analysis:
Yesterday's market was also fluctuating repeatedly, and the market volatility was not very large. Overall, it belonged to a narrow range of fluctuations, without significant breakthroughs. It is worth noting that the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in the early hours of this evening. If the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, Powell will guide no further rate hikes, and the tightening risks in November and December will continue to weaken, and US stocks may also strengthen. Overall, the market today is still dominated by volatility, but the range of volatility is gradually narrowing. The pancake began to rebound after the lowest pullback to the 34000 line yesterday afternoon, but the rebound strength is not significant. In the early morning, the highest was around 34750, and it did not break the 35200-33400 range. It still fluctuates within this range. In the future, we will still focus on pullback, which is a good opportunity for us to enter the market. Therefore, today's market is mainly bullish on pullback.
From a 4-hour perspective, the recent currency price has been maintaining a fluctuating upward trend, and the currency price has also been continuously rising. However, the upward trend has also been accompanied by a pullback. Although the overall structure is relatively strong, due to the previous sharp upward trend, time is still needed to repair it in the future. Currently, the sideways trend is also a form of correction, as mentioned yesterday, before breaking the 35000-33500 range, Looking at it as a vibrating structure.
ETH Market Analysis:
The Ethereum market closed a cross star positive line yesterday, just like Bitcoin, still in a volatile trend, with the low point constantly moving upwards. From an hour's perspective, the market surged strongly in the early morning and retreated to 1830, failing to break through the previous high point. Currently, the market is operating in the middle and upper track range, with multiple upward pins inserted, but failing to break through the upper track line, indicating a resistance on the upper track line. If it can break through the upper track line in the future, the market is likely to rise again and break through the previous high point, And it is possible to approach 1900; If it cannot be broken through, there is still a possibility of shock consolidation within the third line interval of Bollinger, and after consolidation, it may rise again.
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