Recently, Bitcoin has shown relatively strong performance, with multiple attempts to break through the resistance range of $28000 to $28500, while Ethereum has been relatively weak, with only one test of the resistance level of $1750. This article will briefly analyze Ethereum's recent price performance and possible influencing factors
Recently, Bitcoin has shown relatively strong performance, with multiple attempts to break through the resistance range of $28000 to $28500, while Ethereum has been relatively weak, with only one test of the resistance level of $1750. This article will briefly analyze Ethereum's recent price performance and possible influencing factors.
ETH/BTC: has been on a downward trend since MERGE in 2022
In the past year, ETH has performed relatively weakly compared to BTC. Observing the ETH/BTC indicators from 2022 to present, it can be seen that from the beginning of 2022 to June, ETH has shown a downward trend relative to BTC, dropping from 0.081 to around 0.050. Then, due to the positive news from MERGE, ETH rebounded, causing the indicator to rebound to around 0.8 in September 2022. However, since the landing of MERGE, the ETH/BTC index has been showing an overall downward trend, currently around 0.058, approaching the weekly ema200 level.
Nevertheless, from a long-term perspective, ETH/BTC is still showing a growth trend. Looking at a longer period of time, during the 2018 bear market, the lowest ETH/BTC reached 0.01, while in the bear market from 2022 to the present, the lowest ETH/BTC was only 0.05. This mainly reflects the strong development of the ETH ecosystem, which has accumulated more value on the chain compared to the previous bear market.
From the perspective of technical indicators:
On the daily chart, since August 18th, ETH prices have been below EMA200 (200 day moving average), while the MACD index has just approached the zero axis. Compared to this, BTC's performance is relatively strong. Since October 1st, BTC prices have stood above EMA200, while the MACD indicator has also broken through the zero axis and entered a positive range.
The performance of ETH is influenced by various complex factors. At the macro level, this includes changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike policy and changes in the SEC's regulatory attitude. At the micro level, influencing factors include the development of the ETH ecosystem, the rise of Layer2 solutions, the supply and demand of tokens, and the participation of market funds. This article will focus on analyzing the factors that have undergone significant changes recently.
1. Gas consumption significantly decreases, ETH inflation rebounds
In August and September 2023, trading activity on the Ethereum chain entered a trough. On the one hand, there are no new popular projects emerging, leading to a decrease in transaction volume; On the other hand, some potential airdrop projects have encountered large-scale hacker attacks and project fraud, reducing market participation enthusiasm.
The gas cost on the Ethereum chain remains basically below 10gwei. Due to the decrease in on chain activities and gas costs, the supply of Ethereum has exceeded the consumption in the past 30 days, leading to a rebound in inflation rate to 0.275%. In the past 30 days, 27000 ETHs have been added.
However, overall, after the MERGE upgrade, Ethereum is still in a deflationary state. Since the MERGE upgrade, the inflation rate has been -0.217%, reducing a total of 277000 ETHs.
Pledge slowing down, waiting in line for pledged tokens to decrease
As of now, there are a total of 844000 active pledge nodes on the Ethereum network, with approximately 27 million ETHs pledged, and a pledge rate of 25.33%.
Overall, compared to the second quarter of 2023, the current number of new pledges has significantly decreased.
Currently, there are 5723 nodes waiting to participate in the pledge, while Ethereum can add up to 2700 new pledge nodes per day. Therefore, without adding new tokens, processing these nodes only takes 2 to 3 days. This is the period when the number of participating pledge nodes has been the lowest since the upgrade in Shanghai.
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