According to a recent statement released by Zhao Changpeng (CZ), CEO of Coin Security, the price of Bitcoin may exceed its previous historical high of $61000 in 2024. However, there is a contradiction between recent macro events and BTC derivatives market data
According to a recent statement released by Zhao Changpeng (CZ), CEO of Coin Security, the price of Bitcoin may exceed its previous historical high of $61000 in 2024. However, there is a contradiction between recent macro events and BTC derivatives market data.
Despite CZ's optimistic prediction of halving, Bitcoin prices still face pressure
On Wednesday, October 11th, B An added a half down countdown to Bitcoin on the platform's homepage. When announcing this news, Chief Executive Officer Zhao Changpeng emphasized the historical cycle of BTC, that is, after the last three halving events in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin has reached historical highs.
althoughBitcoinaxisThe bullish sentiment of CZ is widely recognized, but recent events in the derivatives market depict a short-term bearish scenario. According to data compiled by Coinglas, BTC bulls suffered a $25 million hit on Wednesday, extending the continuous downward trend to 6 days.
The clearing heatmap provides an overview of cumulative cryptocurrency derivative market positions that have been cleared or liquidated within a given period of time.
The above chart shows that on Wednesday alone, BTC dominated the cryptocurrency market losses, with long positions worth over $25 (betting on BTC price increases) liquidated.
If this situation continues, the BTC spot market price may drop to around $25000 in the coming days.
Bitcoin bears have taken control of the market
Bitcoin has had a good start this month, with multiple attempts to break through the coveted resistance level of $28000. It is worth noting that Bitcoin's dominant position (BTC. D) reached a four month high of 51% during this process.
However, derivatives market data shows that the Israeli Palestinian crisis has tilted the momentum towards bearish positions. From October 7th to 11th, BTC long position holders suffered more losses than short traders.
During this period, long positions worth over $55 million were liquidated.
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It remains to be seen whether high leverage long holders' positions below current prices will increase pressure to avoid further declines in Bitcoin prices.
BTC Price Forecast: A loss of $25000 may lead to greater losses
Based on current market data insights, it seems that the price of Bitcoin will drop to a level close to $25000 in the coming days. However, the inflow/outflow of funds that depict the current distribution of entry prices for BTC holders provides a less pessimistic outlook.
It indicates that the main support group of the holders has entered Bitcoin around the $26300 level.
As shown in the figure below, 1.95 million addresses purchased 811310 BTCs at the highest price of $0.085. If they hold steadily, they can avoid further losses.
But if bears break through this support level, BTC may quickly fall towards $25000.
On the positive side, if Bitcoin prices can regain $30000, bulls may regain control. But in this case, 2.5 million addresses purchased 1.06 million BTCs at an average price of $28300.
If they take profits early, they may immediately trigger a bearish reversal in Bitcoin prices.
But if the resistance level cannot be held, the next stop may be a psychological resistance level of $30000.
The crypto market is constantly changing, and enthusiasts need to remain vigilant, closely monitor market trends, seize opportunities, and avoid risks. We sincerely wish you all the best in the encrypted world and pursue your own password!
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