Key points:Bitcoin's quarterly price performance is poor, at -11.5%, but its performance so far this year is still better than most asset classes;As of the time of writing this article, the purchasing power of the United States, which drove the rise of Bitcoin in the first half of the year, has completely weakened;Trading volume, liquidity, volatility, and search trends continue to decline;The discount of annual grayscale on net asset value has decreased from -48% to -16%;The proportion of long-term holders holding Bitcoin has reached a historic high of over 76%;Bitcoin's native valuation still shows that Bitcoin is at the lower limit of value;The active address slightly increases, while the transmission volume (adjusted by the entity) continues to decrease;After the strong performance of Bitcoin prices in the first half of the year, the performance of Bitcoin in the third quarter was lackluster, with a month on month decline of 11
Key points:
- Bitcoin's quarterly price performance is poor, at -11.5%, but its performance so far this year is still better than most asset classes;
- As of the time of writing this article, the purchasing power of the United States, which drove the rise of Bitcoin in the first half of the year, has completely weakened;
- Trading volume, liquidity, volatility, and search trends continue to decline;
- The discount of annual grayscale on net asset value has decreased from -48% to -16%;
- The proportion of long-term holders holding Bitcoin has reached a historic high of over 76%;
- Bitcoin's native valuation still shows that Bitcoin is at the lower limit of value;
- The active address slightly increases, while the transmission volume (adjusted by the entity) continues to decrease;
After the strong performance of Bitcoin prices in the first half of the year, the performance of Bitcoin in the third quarter was lackluster, with a month on month decline of 11.5%.
In NYDIG's excellent chart, we can see that,Since 2023, Bitcoin has quietly outperformed most major asset classes,It includes large cap stock growth, small and medium cap growth, US and European stocks, bulk commodities, treasury bond bonds, gold, cash, emerging markets, and real estate investment trusts.
First half of the yearOne of the biggest driving forces behind Bitcoin's performance is the submission of Bitcoin ETF applications by well-known traditional financial institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity.After the release of these documents, there was a strong bidding for BTC during the US trading session. As shown in the figure below, the trading time premium in the United States was quite significant in March, but has since completely decreased.
This is also reflected in the decline in open positions in Bitcoin CME futures contractsThe futures are mainly traded by traditional hedge funds, family offices, etc. - open contracts refer to the number of open futures contracts.
Other indicators in the Bitcoin market have also declined, including the trading volume of Bitcoin spot and futures, the 3-month futures basis (the difference between spot and 3-month futures contracts) of Bitcoin, and can even be reflected through basic indicators.As a Google search trend. It can be said with certainty that the Bitcoin market is currently in a period of deep apathy.
A positive trend we have seen throughout the year is the close discount of GBTC relative to net asset value, reflecting increased confidence in Grayscale's ability to convert its current closed end trust into a spot Bitcoin ETF.Throughout 2023, the GBTC discount decreased from -48% to only -16%.
In terms of valuation, one of the most closely monitored indicators is the MVRV ratio. This compares the current marginal transaction price of Bitcoin with its implementation price, which is the cost basis of the entire network based on on on chain data.
The idea behind this method is to,Whenever the MVRV is high, market participants will sit on a large amount of unrealized profits and have the motivation to achieve partial profits, while when the MVRV is negative, it means that the overall market is underwater.Although the market is no longer severely undervalued as it was at the end of last year,But the level of overheating reached during the peak periods of 2017 and 2021 is still far from being achieved.
The periodicity of Bitcoin is determined byhalveMacroscopic forcesGeneral behavioral dynamicsThe combination drive of these three is still controversial;But when comparing the performance of the current cycle with the low points of the first three cycles of Bitcoin, from a time perspective, the development of things seems very similar.
Meanwhile,Turning to online activities, we can see that the percentage of Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders has reached a historical high of over 76%. This means that over 3 out of every 4 BTCs are held by long-term holders.
As a reference, long-term holders are defined asOn chain entities holding Bitcoin for over 155 days..
Another positive trend isThe number of Bitcoins held by entities on the chain is less than 10, not only showing an upward trend throughout the entire history of Bitcoin,..
Bitcoin's hash rate also reached a historic high this quarter, buthalve.
Active addresses in the third quarter950,0001,000,000.
Meanwhile,Glassnode 731.
Denominated in US dollars 2021 2.15 1.4 .
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Author: More Content Official Account KeplerResearch
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