The internet, future, and user data all indicate that Ethereum may open up new avenues.The price of Ethereum has been facing some strong resistance, and on September 11th, the price of counterfeit coins underwent a severe test, falling to the support level of $1530
The internet, future, and user data all indicate that Ethereum may open up new avenues.
The price of Ethereum has been facing some strong resistance, and on September 11th, the price of counterfeit coins underwent a severe test, falling to the support level of $1530.
In the following days, ETH rebounded to $1626Successfully achieved an impressive recovery, soaring by 6%.
After a month of 16% decline in ETH, this recovery may mark a critical moment.
Despite Ethereum's rapid recovery, its price performance still raises questions among investors about its potential to rebound to $1850, and ETH derivatives and online activities may be key to solving this challenge.
According to the latest Consumer Price Index report, macroeconomic factors have played an important role in easing investor pessimism, given that inflation in the United States has accelerated for the second consecutive month, reaching 3.7%.
These data reinforce people's belief that US government debt will continue to soar, forcing the Treasury to provide higher yields.
Rare assets are expected to benefit from inflationary pressures and expansionary monetary policies aimed at reducing budget deficits.
However, the cryptocurrency industry is facing a series of challenges of its own.
Regulatory uncertainty and high network fees limit investors' appetite
The possibility of a lawsuit by the US Department of Justice is imminent.
In addition, Coin America has also been involved in legal disputes with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, leading to company layoffs and executive resignations.
In addition to the regulatory barriers faced by cryptocurrencies, the smart contract activity of the Ethereum network has also significantly decreased, which is the core of its original purpose.
The network is still struggling to cope with the persistent high average cost, hovering above $3.
Ethereum Network DApp Ranking by Active Address
In the past 30 days, the number of active addresses in top tier Ethereum decentralized applications (DApps) has decreased by an average of 26%.
An exception to this trend is the Lido liquid pledge project, which saw a 7% increase in total locked value (TVL) calculated in ETH during the same period.
It is worth mentioning that Lido's success has also been criticized due to the dominant position of the project, which accounts for 72% of the total ETH pledge amount.
Ethereum co founder Vitalik acknowledges that Ethereum needs to make it easier for ordinary people to run nodes in order to maintain decentralization in the long term.
However, Vitalik does not anticipate a feasible solution to address this challenge in the next decade.
Therefore, investors have reasonable concerns about centralization, including the impact of services such as Lido.
ETH futures and options show reduced interest in leveraged bulls
Viewing derivative indicators will better explain the positioning of Ethereum's professional traders under current market conditions.
Ethereum monthly futures are usually traded at an annualized premium of 5% to 10%, which is called futures premium and is not unique to the cryptocurrency market.
Ethereum 2-month futures annualized premium
The Ethereum futures premium hit its lowest point in three weeks, at 2.2%, indicating insufficient demand for leveraged long positions.
Interestingly, even the 6% increase after retesting the support level of $1530 on September 11th did not push ETH futures to the neutral threshold of 5%.
Everyone should pay attention to the options market to better measure market sentiment, as a 25% Delta deviation can confirm whether professional traders tend to be bearish.
In short, if traders expect the price of Ethereum to decline, the deviation indicator will rise to over 7%, while the deviation during the excitement period is usually -7%.
Ethereum 30 Day Option 25% Delta Deviation
On September 14th, Ethereum's 25% Delta deviation indicator briefly shifted to a bullish stance.
This shift is driven by put (put) option trading, which offers an 8% discount on the trading price compared to similar call (call) options.
However, this sentiment weakened on September 15th, with trading premiums for call and put options similar.
Essentially, despite successfully maintaining a price level of $1530, Ethereum derivatives traders' interest in leveraged long positions has decreased.
On the one hand, Ethereum has potential catalysts, including demand for spot Ethereum exchange traded funds and macroeconomic factors driven by inflationary pressures.
However, the reduction in DApp usage and ongoing regulatory uncertainty have created fertile soil for FUD - fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
This may continue to exert downward pressure on Ethereum prices, making it unlikely to rebound to $1850 in the short to medium term.
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